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lunedì 22 agosto 2016

Assad causes a Kurdish issue

Behind the new Syrian targets, identified in the Kurdish positions, bombed by the army of Assad, there is all the change in Turkish foreign policy. Damascus has long exploited the Kurdish military's ability to fight on the ground, to stem the forces of the Islamic State, to act in a way, albeit unofficial, mutual non-aggression with Kurdish fighters, because of the same objectives against the caliphate. Even with the beginning of Russian aid, the situation seemed changed; on the contrary, with the increasing dependence on Moscow, the Kremlin must have imposed on Assad a change of direction. Putin, who became the real director of the Syrian issue, it must give something to the Turks, to justify their assent to the presence of Assad in the upcoming negotiations for the future of Syria. What one is driving, in fact is the first consequence of the rapprochement of Turkey and Russia, with Moscow forced to pander to Ankara's policy, strongly opposed to the possibility of the emergence of a Kurdish state on their borders. The Kremlin, in essence, sacrifice the Kurdish question to meet their diplomatic and economic needs, leaving a goal for Erdogan's government a victory in a key issue for the executive turkish. The bombings carried out by Assad on Kurdish positions, in fact, have suffered caused the satisfaction of Ankara and an approach to the Damascus regime, until a short time before it impossible even just to predict. More specifically, the turkish government has appreciated the new vision that Assad has matured on the Kurds, and concluded that Damascus also identifies the Kurdish militias as an expression of terrorism. The question, however, is not so simple and, indeed, hides many pitfalls on international developments: in fact bombed by Assad stations belong to the militias of the Kurdish self-defense, found in the north eastern region of Syria, formally allied to the United States in the war on the Islamic state. On the territory there are also US special forces, who collaborate with the Kurds, whose presence caused the number of American military aircraft, just in the USA actual protection. As we see the possibility of confrontation between American and Syrian, and consequently also Russian, it has risen dramatically, creating a situation of great danger for the regional and global balance. Needless to say the game is doing Russia is extremely dangerous, but there is, as a novelty mode. Moscow seems to want to bring the situation to the limit, and then benefit from the behavior of those who are most responsible. There is a further point to make, with regard to the increasing importance of the Kurdish question in the economy of the Middle East situation and is represented by the impossibility to postpone its solution. As for Syria, previously it seemed possible that Assad could give up the territory of the Kurdish minority, but the rapprochement with Turkey appears to have made void this possibility, also justified by the need for Russia and Iran, to Damascus to ensure the integrity territorial Syrian country. This solution promises to be difficult not only for the Kurds, but also to the democratic forces that fought the regime of Damascus, with the intention to replace it with a democracy, and foreshadows a ruling of no small importance, as regards the possible outcome of negotiations for the future Syria. But the Kurdish question not only for Syria but also in Iraq, which begins to suffer Kurdish military successes, whose intention is precisely to give birth to a sovereign state in the Iraqi region, who are already enjoying considerable autonomy . If, on the one hand you can understand how Iraq wants to preserve its territorial integrity, it is also understandable the Kurdish desire to have a tangible compensation for the effort, supported often by themselves, Kurdish fighters, to stem the offensive of the State Muslim, when he was at the height of its power. Putin will also use the Kurdish issue to their advantage, fueling not only Syria, but perhaps even Iraq itself, but this will not be possible for Member States, deeply linked to the Kurds since the time of the second Gulf War, for 'aid received against Saddam Hussein. A possible war against the Kurds can not be ignored by Washington in the most absolute and do not get to too dangerous points would be good diplomacy might open the comparison tables to prevent a potentially explosive situation, not only from the side of international relations, but also those of terrorism.

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