Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 10 agosto 2016
The battle of Aleppo: crux of the Syrian war
The battle of Aleppo seems to become decisive for the future of Syria. If,
by now is beyond question the presence of Assad in the future of the
Syrian country, we need to understand how this can be set-up. The
ability of the dictator of Damascus, gave up on him several times, was
to wait for the course of events, without ever questioning his place of
power: certainly suffered defeats, but never lost the war, because was
first encouraged by the uncertain international political response,
then by the division of its internal opponents and finally by that
Russian, arrived when the tide seemed to turn towards defeat for the
Syrian regular forces. Now the goal of Assad, and who supports it, is to lose less of territory as possible of what may remain under its sovereignty. If
it is assumed that it will be impossible to Damascus, keep the old
territorial integrity at the beginning of the war going, it is important
to focus on what boundaries Assad wants to maintain under its control. Surely
the intention of the regime is to control the western part of the
country, including major cities ele coast, leaving the eastern areas to
the moderate opposition control, after elimination of the Islamic state
from the theater of war. A
separate consideration regards the Kurdish territory, which has been
heavily involved against the formations of the caliphate and aims to
have its own legal entity, but that after the recent meeting between
Putin and Erdogan, is not going to materialize. For the Kurds the best solution that will occur will be a kind of federal autonomy still under the control of Damascus. In
this context, the city of Aleppo, which is the most populous of the
country, even in the capital, is considered a fundamental objective for
the forces of Assad, not only for its historical importance, political
and economic lining the city within project
Syria's future, but because it represents an important strategic
crossroads and a significance in terms of image, in which a possible
loss, would have adverse effects on the fate of the conflict. Currently the rebel forces would break the encirclement of the troops of Assad, also limiting their supply routes. The battles are very bloody and generate a serious health and humanitarian crisis. At
the core of this problem, there are a total of 1,500,000 civilians,
deprived of any livelihood, electricity and drinking water, so the
population is forced to use contaminated water, adding more health
problems than those caused by the war. The
concentration of the fighters present in Aleppo does not allow to have
optimistic forecasts about the future of the battle: the Syrian forces
and Hezbollah fighters Iranians are added, while on the other side of
Sunni militias would be added fighters Uighurs from China. This
gathering gives an idea of the importance of control of Aleppo, which
is considered crucial by both parties and announces the immediate
future of clashes and increasing level of violence; In
fact a conquest of the grid against Assad could prevent its sovereignty
project on that part of the country who had planned and this would lead
to a constant threat to Damascus, even in the case of a achieving a
hypothetical agreement between the parties. For
the United Nations is indispensable to open humanitarian corridors
before the battle will become even bloodier to allow the hospitalization
of the injured and the evacuation of the largest possible number of
civilians. But
again all the diplomacy seems to be unprepared and caught off guard by a
war that always shows a downside even the recent past. Without a round table where Russia and the United States exercising their power the Syrian issue is bound to last for long.
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