Politica Internazionale

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lunedì 8 agosto 2016

The Taliban are advancing in Afghanistan

After fifteen years of conflict in Afghanistan, the situation in the country is far from resolved. Because of the failure of the creation of a national army, which was already arriving at actual 370,000, and, on the other hand, amounted to a force of 170,000 men, the state is unable to have complete control of the national territory. Several districts are under the sovereignty of the Taliban, which, in addition to administering them by applying Islamic law, have established operational bases for their armed forces, training centers, both for the fighters, which for Kamikaze, forcing the local population to be subservient to the will of the fundamentalists. The problem of the Afghan state is also due to a corrupt political class, which has failed to make progress on the political level and the absence of agreements with the parties less influenced by religion of Taliban organizations, present in the tribal structures, those to which it is necessary contact. Control over several districts of Islamic fundamentalists forced the state apparatus at year waiver of sovereignty over parts of the country, which, in fact, are placed outside the state structure. The attitude of the armed forces is part of this problem, since the poor operational capabilities of the military, forces them to a defensive tactic, which does not allow actions aimed at the reconquest of the territory. It is a war of attrition, where the Taliban exert a slow but steady progress, which nullifies all the efforts of the international coalition and especially the United States. Since 2001, the Western investment was 65 billion dollars only for training and provision of the necessary weapons to build and equip an army, that practically did not exist. The situation of the small number of staff depends on a poor attitude of Afghans for military life and also the large number of desertions of which suffer from the national armed forces. The perception is that the Afghans themselves are unconvinced of the usefulness of a national army and still prefer the western protection. In the period between 2015 and the beginning of 2016 it is estimated that the actual which were replaced has been at least one third, with the result that a large number of Afghan soldiers either unprepared for the direct fight against the Taliban, most trained and motivated and accustomed to move out of a well-known terrain. Officially ended in 2014, the operations for the liberation of Afghanistan, in fact have only been reduced and the official commitment made in Poland ensuring the presence of Western forces until 2020; the program would be to make self the national army to win the contest with the Taliban, but now this result seems very far away. What is missing in Kabul, beyond what has been previously mentioned, is a diplomatic structure able to establish relations with neighboring states, to undertake a project that will take away the Taliban militia direct and indirect support, which some neighboring states to secure him. In particular the attitude of Pakistan continues to be not too clear, partly because the pressure on Afghanistan keeps open ambitions to influence Kabul. The general picture of the situation imposes on Western forces and the United States to treat the Afghan problem with even greater caution: if the aim of creating an independent state and entered the western alliance, so far failed, for the next president who will occupy the White House the issue of Kabul place on the world stage will recur on time. Prevent the expansion of the Taliban remains a key priority in the fight against terrorism, the conflict in Syria and Iraq has certainly not decreased; indeed necessary to avoid that the level of this contagion will spread even to these, to avoid even greater enlargements, capable of altering the regional and global equilibrium.

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