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martedì 11 ottobre 2016

Russia and Turkey closer

While the presidential elections held focused attention on the US domestic political problems, the international scenario does not standstill, and setting out new agreements, which could precede more alliances, certainly not welcome at the White House. This is the case of the approach between Russia and Turkey, which appear to have passed the disagreements due to the killing of Moscow military plane, by Ankara. Economic and geopolitical reasons have constituted a valid reason to re-establish good relations between the two states. it must be said that there are common features and similarities between the two presidents, who could not but emerge in mutual dialogue: the fact that Putin has praised Erdogan for the answer that the president turkish was able to give to the coup, is,, particularly eloquent and pleasing to Erdogan, who has never received similar treatment from Europe and the US, which, indeed, have deeply criticized the repression practiced by the central government in Ankara. But the concrete bases for rapprochement have been agreements between the respective ministers of energy and foreign, who have agreed on the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia who come to the border between Turkey and Greece. Moscow for the construction of this infrastructure is the alternative to the pipeline had to cross Ukraine and which, whose construction was abandoned after the events in Crimea and the state of tension that continues between Kiev and the Kremlin. The purpose of the pipeline will be to transport natural gas to Europe, even if the flow rate provided appears overestimated for the European application. Moscow seems to wager as well on a production and economic recovery of the continent, or, rather, of difficulties of supply related to the unstable situation of the Arab producing countries. However one of the customers that should increase their own needs, seems to be Turkey, where natural gas is the primary source of energy, which is a considerable reduction was granted on the purchase price, by Russia. In the field of energy it was also signed a bilateral agreement for the construction of a nuclear power plant. Erdogan confirmed that bilateral talks will not stop to energy issues, but will also address the defense, tourism (Turkey is a destination for many Russians), cultural and other economic reports, concerning the re-opening to imports from the Russia of Turkish agricultural products and aerospace cooperation. If the agreement on economic issues appeared almost complete, the main difficulties were recorded on geopolitical issues related to the Syrian conflict. Moscow and Ankara are on opposite sides, Russia supports Assad, while Turkey has tried in every way to overthrow him from power; However, Erdogan has recently shown signs of rapprochement with Damascus, thanks to the agreement about the fight against Kurdish fighters. Ankara fears more than anything else the establishment of a sovereign Kurdish enclave to its borders and, to avoid this possibility, it has shown itself willing to reconsider the presence of Assad, in a future set-up of the Syrian country. This factor is an element able to start the ninth only a dialogue, but also a partnership between Russia and Turkey, on the Syrian issue, which will be also possible military arrangements, to make harmless the armed groups, who still reject the presence of Assad in future of Syria. We must, however, consider that several of these armed groups are supported by the United States, which would plan to supply them with new arms shipments. It is understandable that Putin's strategy has two concrete objectives: to continue the action of breaking international isolation and increasing internal strife Atlantic Alliance between Washington and Ankara. Despite that the White House had granted the openings to stop the ambitions of independence of the Syrian Kurds, just to get a rapprochement with Turkey, these developments on the relations between Ankara and Moscow can not do portend a new departure. It is not the economic issue, which, however, damages the US policy of isolation towards Moscow, to annoy Washington, as the value of Turkey as the only Muslim member of the Atlantic Alliance to worry the White House, both almost immediate implications in Syrian scenario, both on a long-term view on loyalty as an ally of Turkey, given its increasing proximity to the Russian enemy. These agreements between Turkey and Russia, may, therefore, alter the European and Western geopolitical balance, without a direct commitment of the new US president to try to recover the relationship with Ankara.

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