Terrorism and refugees, the possible consequences of the battle of Mosul

The dangers of the impending battle of Mosul consequences, in addition to military contingent situation, essentially on two elements: the first is the danger of foreign fighters, who are likely to return en masse to their countries of origin, the second concerns the humanitarian situation of the civilian population , which is likely to swell to a significant number IDPs, resulting in an exodus that could alter the already precarious situation in Iraq, adding a new problem to the general situation. As for the possible return of a large number of ex-combatants present in the ranks of the Islamic State, it is necessary to analyze the estimated numbers. It is believed, in fact, that in Mosul are around 2,500 fighters from European states, we must remember that after Syria, the largest contingent of men enrolled in the Caliphate forces is just Iraq, of which Mosul is considered a sort of capital. This would be men, mostly young, often accompanied by women and children with the European Union passport. The calculation of the Hague International Centre for Counter Terrorism, evaluating a number of European fighters between 3900 and 4300, of these 14% could have died, while about a third should have already returned to their countries of membership, would remain, therefore, the substantial portion of the 56% still active on the battlefields, committed, not only in the ranks of the Islamic state, but also of other fundamentalist groups. Focusing on the developments of the battle for the recapture of Mosul, it is not considered probable that the offensive is concluded in a short time, as the military engagement is considered also possible for several weeks or, at worst, even several months. This possibility, if negative for Definitive defeat of the Caliphate, represents an opportunity for European states in order to organize themselves in a preventive manner for widespread control of the possible returns and of decisions to be taken against those who fought in the Islamic state in a secure or probable. If a number of European legislation, provide for the prohibition and, therefore, the penalty for entry into foreign formations, especially if linked to terrorism, the more difficult it will be to demonstrate the effective military participation to the caliphate; However, this prevention is essential against military personnel more or less trained and highly motivated to the Islamic cause: factors that favor the recruitment European formations. One of the possible effects of the defeat of the caliphate is the export of asymmetrical warfare on a large scale in the West, especially in Europe, but not only, as the phenomenon of the fall of the fighters also for Russia and China, as well as other countries . The possible military defeat of the Islamic state on the territory of which claimed sovereignty may not be enough to complete elimination of the idea of ​​the Caliphate, which could embrace a tactic more oriented to terrorist actions against countries that have resisted. In this view there is no safe country do not fall into this strategy and therefore be affected by terrorism. At least the European countries should develop a common approach to the problem, able to prevent terrorist acts and to provide a kind of re-education and control of those fighters who will return home. It is understandable that the problem is intimately connected with the security, both national and supranational interests and that states belonging to opposing factions, such as Russia and Europe. Prevention, however, must not only be made on the states of the terrorists belonging, but immediately during the recapture of Mosul, where you will need a parallel effort to military action, consisting in the identification of the highest possible number of foreign fighters, including to reconstruct the paths and ways of engagement of foreign fighters. The challenge, in short, more moves on the intelligence side already in war zones. The second problem relates to the new wave of refugees, which is already in formation, and which it will achieve by the destruction that followed the fighting. The area around Mosul have already seen a relentless exodus of those who have managed to escape the Islamic State, to prevent, among other things, the problem of being forced to become human shields. According to the state of Iraq estimates the potential number of internally displaced persons would be around 700,000 people, compared to a capacity of already organized refugee camps, expected around 130,000 units. These data are likely to cause a new problem for Baghdad, both from the humanitarian point of view, politically, being refugees, the majority Sunni. Substandard care could lead to the Iraqi government, Shiite matrix, a further deterioration of the situation, encouraging feelings against the reassertion of state sovereignty of Mosul and its surroundings. Also it could attend a migration to Europe increased, causing even greater pressure on the old continent and exacerbating the conflicts between the states. It makes it so needed extra support to the Iraqi government for this additional emergency by international organizations and individual states to provide adequate help to people fleeing from military confrontation, that would allow the state Iraqi support.