Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 23 novembre 2016

Erdogan threatens to join the Organization of Shanghai Cooperation

The threat of Erdogan to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, seems to be the ultimate blackmail against a European Union, with which the distances increasing by the day. The new destination that Ankara would like to achieve is a supranational organization, which groups China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which has the mission of military and economic cooperation. On a waiting list for possible future accessions are Mongolia, Pakistan, India and even Iran. It is a heterogeneous organization for different purposes of its members and that, until now, has not developed much your own business. However, in a changing world the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, it seems to have wide margins of development, in a world context where individual players lose more and more importance in favor of an alliance between multiple states. If the European Union model or that of the Atlantic Alliance, seem to be still far away, the need for broader agreements of bilateral ones, increases the importance of the organizations that are already present with its own structure, especially if they help to bring countries neighboring with complementary needs. The Turkish demands, to break isolation will increase, could find a justification in the application for admission to the Organization of Shanghai. This definitely would exclude every other attempt to join the EU and which is currently not possible because of the attitude that the Turkish government has taken against civil rights, more and more compressed in the country. But for Erdogan it would be an admission of defeat, easier to justify, but still a loss, since the failure to adhere to Europe should be to certify the failure of a goal long pursued. Because a membership to an alliance where there is the irreconcilable Russia would make an entrance in Brussels. The perception is that Erdogan wants to keep open both possibilities, with the accession to Shanghai as a last chance, and that the operation represents a sort of ultimatum to Europe, which in the case of Turkey joining the Organization in Shanghai, could have on its borders can have both Chinese and Russians. For the present regime currently in turkish country there would undoubtedly greater affinity and minor criticisms, it remains to be seen whether this membership will bring benefits comparable to the relationship, albeit at a distance, which is currently in place with the European Union. Then there is the problem the Atlantic Alliance, whose stay in Turkey in the event of accession in Shanghai, could be questioned; although it is true that the existing relations with the White House are far from relaxed. Possible changes could occur, however, with the establishment of the new American President Trump, cha has repeatedly expressed a desire to practice a different US involvement in the Atlantic Alliance. However it will also be interesting to see how the relationships between Trump and Putin will evolve and how will influence the behavior of Turkey itself. What you think Erdogan is a possbile referendum on the intention or not to still proceed with the negotiations for European integration, in order to cancel all outstanding issues with Brussels and eventually start from scratch, in the context of a bilateral relationship between Ankara and the European Union, without the conditions related to a possible entry of the turkish country. It prefigures, as well, a kind of break with the EU, with some analogy to the British case.

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