Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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mercoledì 23 novembre 2016
Erdogan threatens to join the Organization of Shanghai Cooperation
The
threat of Erdogan to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, seems
to be the ultimate blackmail against a European Union, with which the
distances increasing by the day. The
new destination that Ankara would like to achieve is a supranational
organization, which groups China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which has the mission of military and
economic cooperation. On a waiting list for possible future accessions are Mongolia, Pakistan, India and even Iran. It
is a heterogeneous organization for different purposes of its members
and that, until now, has not developed much your own business. However,
in a changing world the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, it seems to
have wide margins of development, in a world context where individual
players lose more and more importance in favor of an alliance between
multiple states. If
the European Union model or that of the Atlantic Alliance, seem to be
still far away, the need for broader agreements of bilateral ones,
increases the importance of the organizations that are already present
with its own structure, especially if they help to bring countries neighboring with complementary needs. The
Turkish demands, to break isolation will increase, could find a
justification in the application for admission to the Organization of
Shanghai. This
definitely would exclude every other attempt to join the EU and which
is currently not possible because of the attitude that the Turkish
government has taken against civil rights, more and more compressed in
the country. But
for Erdogan it would be an admission of defeat, easier to justify, but
still a loss, since the failure to adhere to Europe should be to certify
the failure of a goal long pursued. Because a membership to an alliance where there is the irreconcilable Russia would make an entrance in Brussels. The
perception is that Erdogan wants to keep open both possibilities, with
the accession to Shanghai as a last chance, and that the operation
represents a sort of ultimatum to Europe, which in the case of Turkey
joining the Organization in Shanghai, could have on its borders can have both Chinese and Russians. For
the present regime currently in turkish country there would undoubtedly
greater affinity and minor criticisms, it remains to be seen whether
this membership will bring benefits comparable to the relationship,
albeit at a distance, which is currently in place with the European
Union. Then
there is the problem the Atlantic Alliance, whose stay in Turkey in the
event of accession in Shanghai, could be questioned; although it is true that the existing relations with the White House are far from relaxed. Possible
changes could occur, however, with the establishment of the new
American President Trump, cha has repeatedly expressed a desire to
practice a different US involvement in the Atlantic Alliance. However
it will also be interesting to see how the relationships between Trump
and Putin will evolve and how will influence the behavior of Turkey
itself. What
you think Erdogan is a possbile referendum on the intention or not to
still proceed with the negotiations for European integration, in order
to cancel all outstanding issues with Brussels and eventually start from
scratch, in the context of a bilateral relationship between Ankara and the European Union, without the conditions related to a possible entry of the turkish country. It prefigures, as well, a kind of break with the EU, with some analogy to the British case.
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