Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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giovedì 3 novembre 2016
The American elections become uncertain
Six
days before the vote to elect the president of the greatest world
power, salt uncertainty to a conclusion, which seemed now defined. The
FBI investigation, which has shown once again accused the Democratic
candidate, a few days before the vote, it seemed, to most people, an
attack ticking, led the field of a Trump, now taken for defeated. The
news of the charges to the Clinton moved the survey values, which seem,
never as in this moment, uncertain and unreliable, because the hostage
of late-breaking news. However,
the possibility that the election campaign is decided by the dominant
mood on the eve of the vote, rather than thoughtful reasoning, seems to
become a distinct possibility. According to some of Trump polls, it would be for the first time in front of his rival; If
this possibility turns out to be true it is difficult to establish, but
the feeling is that at this time, the distance between the two has been
reduced significantly and both candidates will need every vote to
prevail. Of
course, the arrival of novelty able to move from one field to the
electorate appears far averted, making an election that seemed now
directed towards a certain result, less and less predictable. On
the other hand it was an election campaign marked by a very low level,
especially because of the message and behavior deliberately against the
rules, the Republican candidate, who has crossed all limits, even
compared to campaigns so harsh but basically loyal. The
risk that the negative aftermath of the election campaign will continue
outside of the election of the candidate are becoming more concrete,
threatening to bring the American country within a spiral of instability
and no governance for the possible lack of acceptance of the new
president of part of the defeated. This
possibility is the one that has threatened accusing Trump, that Clinton
is able to win only in the presence of electoral fraud. The
FBI investigation could signal the opening of an internal conflict to
the institutions, with federal police deployed openly with Trump; it
is clear the lightness of Clinton for using the mail server unprotected
for state private correspondence is an unprecedented lightness, but
make it the centerpiece of a campaign, with the presentation of
government programs not defined, do not make it a credible election
campaign . Despite this it seems that the ability to have Trump took office in the White House, has become less remote. Let's
recap what might happen with the billionaire in the role of President
of the United States: a review of American foreign policy and therefore
the setting of the defense also extended to the Atlantic Alliance's
role, questioning the free trade agreements in force for the US and, not something secondary, availability atomic arsenal. The
bags have recorded these fears, which indicate a situation of internal
and external instability to the United States, as unexpected anomaly, a
case comparable leaving England from Europe and gave clear negative
signals. This
trend could, however, reinforce the idea that Clinton is a nominee of
the large financial and industrial groups and end up favoring further
Trump, which collects, paradoxically, much of the discontent of white
workers, even though in part, including those who sanders have voted in the primaries. In
any case, whatever we achieve, less and less obvious, the post-election
scenario, present a deeply divided country, where voters of the losing
side will not be willing to recognize the legitimacy of the prevailing
party. Preparations
must be made, in the Western world, to a situation where the US could
live a convoluted situation, almost withdrawn into themselves,
overthrowing the current parameters of relations with allies, or live a
reverse situation where Washington seeks to take up the role of world policeman, to which Obama had given up. It
will be essential the contribution of all moderate Americans, first and
world diplomacy in second place, considering how it will be also
inevitable that the enemies of the US, will attempt to exploit the
situation to their advantage.
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