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giovedì 3 novembre 2016

The American elections become uncertain

Six days before the vote to elect the president of the greatest world power, salt uncertainty to a conclusion, which seemed now defined. The FBI investigation, which has shown once again accused the Democratic candidate, a few days before the vote, it seemed, to most people, an attack ticking, led the field of a Trump, now taken for defeated. The news of the charges to the Clinton moved the survey values, which seem, never as in this moment, uncertain and unreliable, because the hostage of late-breaking news. However, the possibility that the election campaign is decided by the dominant mood on the eve of the vote, rather than thoughtful reasoning, seems to become a distinct possibility. According to some of Trump polls, it would be for the first time in front of his rival; If this possibility turns out to be true it is difficult to establish, but the feeling is that at this time, the distance between the two has been reduced significantly and both candidates will need every vote to prevail. Of course, the arrival of novelty able to move from one field to the electorate appears far averted, making an election that seemed now directed towards a certain result, less and less predictable. On the other hand it was an election campaign marked by a very low level, especially because of the message and behavior deliberately against the rules, the Republican candidate, who has crossed all limits, even compared to campaigns so harsh but basically loyal. The risk that the negative aftermath of the election campaign will continue outside of the election of the candidate are becoming more concrete, threatening to bring the American country within a spiral of instability and no governance for the possible lack of acceptance of the new president of part of the defeated. This possibility is the one that has threatened accusing Trump, that Clinton is able to win only in the presence of electoral fraud. The FBI investigation could signal the opening of an internal conflict to the institutions, with federal police deployed openly with Trump; it is clear the lightness of Clinton for using the mail server unprotected for state private correspondence is an unprecedented lightness, but make it the centerpiece of a campaign, with the presentation of government programs not defined, do not make it a credible election campaign . Despite this it seems that the ability to have Trump took office in the White House, has become less remote. Let's recap what might happen with the billionaire in the role of President of the United States: a review of American foreign policy and therefore the setting of the defense also extended to the Atlantic Alliance's role, questioning the free trade agreements in force for the US and, not something secondary, availability atomic arsenal. The bags have recorded these fears, which indicate a situation of internal and external instability to the United States, as unexpected anomaly, a case comparable leaving England from Europe and gave clear negative signals. This trend could, however, reinforce the idea that Clinton is a nominee of the large financial and industrial groups and end up favoring further Trump, which collects, paradoxically, much of the discontent of white workers, even though in part, including those who sanders have voted in the primaries. In any case, whatever we achieve, less and less obvious, the post-election scenario, present a deeply divided country, where voters of the losing side will not be willing to recognize the legitimacy of the prevailing party. Preparations must be made, in the Western world, to a situation where the US could live a convoluted situation, almost withdrawn into themselves, overthrowing the current parameters of relations with allies, or live a reverse situation where Washington seeks to take up the role of world policeman, to which Obama had given up. It will be essential the contribution of all moderate Americans, first and world diplomacy in second place, considering how it will be also inevitable that the enemies of the US, will attempt to exploit the situation to their advantage.

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