Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
Cerca nel blog
mercoledì 21 dicembre 2016
Russia, Turkey and Iran cooperate in the solution of the Syrian crisis. USA absentees.
After
the attack the Russian ambassador in Turkey, the Ankara government,
Moscow and Tehran have agreed to act as a kind of guarantor in the peace
talks between the Syrian government and the opposition. The
three countries have common interests to the Syrian war, including the
potential and long awaited post-war period, it can not compromise its
internal and international interests of the respective situations. For
all three states it is necessary that Syria retains its territorial
integrity: for Turkey is now necessary that Assad remains in power to
contain the ambitions of the Kurds and prevent them establish their own
independent state on the border with the country turkish, Iran
is important to keep in power in a Shia government guidance Syrian
state, because that makes it a totally reliable ally, Russia is equally
important to keep Assad in power, because it is able to maintain active
the only naval base Russian
in the Mediterranean and, above all, continue to play a key role in the
Syrian affair, allowing him to play again a role of great power, which
had not happened since the fall of the Soviet Union. However,
this involvement exposes the three countries to a possible involvement
in terrorist acts, of which the Russian ambassador attack in Turkey,
certainly constitutes something more than a warning. To
avoid as much as possible to be the target of the three-state terrorism
must ensure the peace process, who can protect both the civilian
population, the parties that come out losses from the conflict. All
three governments, although not known for respect for human rights, are
well aware of having to contain the possible will to Assad to carry out
a violent repression of the defeated groups, because only would give an
opportunity to an extension of the conflict, maybe with
guerrilla and terrorist actions, both on the Syrian home front, either
exporting their own in the three countries of Damascus allies. If
for Turkey, this danger seems to be already begun, not only thanks to
the action of the Kurds, but also of the Islamic State, the other two
were this scenario is still avoidable. Certainly
Russia is more likely, because on its territory there are several
Islamic fighters returned from the Syrian and Iraqi theaters of war and
the presence of a Muslim fundamentalism deeply entrenched in the
southern territories. Iran,
with its repressive apparatus, appears to be less at risk, but the
exasperation of the Sunni minority could bring unrest and the
possibility of attacks. Then
for all three remains present the possibility of being hit on foreign
territories, as happened with the Russian ambassador in Turkey. We
can appreciate how the need to become guarantors of a peace process
that limits the maximum reprisals by the victors become a supranational
requirement, which goes beyond, that is, internal negotiations on the
Syrian country. There are however some doubts about the cooperation that can be developed between Moscow and Ankara. Turkey
has taken place, with the death of an ambassador, a very serious breach
of international law, as was stressed by the head of the Russian
government ela tension that has risked between the two countries
amounted only to the immediate aftermath of the killing Russian military aircraft from the army turkish. Moscow
has been able to impose its presence, by Russian investigators, the
investigation of the Turkish authorities: an almost humiliating factor
for Ankara, on the other hand the feelings of the Turkish population
against Russia, appear strongly opposed, as seen in events
that took place in recent days, just near the Moscow embassy in Ankara,
for the violent attitude, held by the Russian military in Aleppo. Erdogan
himself seems to have bowed to reasons of state, and its geopolitical
interests, in approaching to Russia, which seems to be, therefore,
instrumental and not sincere alliance. Throughout
this evolution of the Syrian scenario, there is still a very important
factor to be analyzed: the total absence of the US presence. Whether
it's a lack of participation due to the political transition, seems to
be little true, perception, rather, is that the absence of a deliberate,
perfectly consistent with the intentions that Trump said during the
election campaign: that is a progressive disengagement from the
international scene, to steal economic and political efforts by the external scenario in favor of what is inside. A clear signal of the next American decadence fortune.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento