Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 11 gennaio 2017
The atomic danger of North Korea will become a central issue for Trump
Despite
the many challenges present in the international arena, for the new US
President Trump, the most urgent danger of becoming one with North
Korea. According
to sources in Seoul, in fact, the potential nuclear capabilities of
Pyongyang, would be greatly increased, thanks to the quantities of
uranium enriched and plutonium accumulated in North Korean deposits. In
particular, the regime in Pyongyang, would have considerably increased
its capacity to enrich uranium, thanks to having put into operation a
reactor, with capacity of five megawatts, already closed in 2007, under
an international agreement, which It provided humanitarian aid in return for food and medicine. According
to estimates of the Institute for Science and International Security in
Washington, the nuclear material quantities available to North Korea,
would allow the construction of about twenty nuclear devices. As
it can be understood the potential danger has become still greater, for
the mere presence of these arms, able to subvert, not only the regional
balance, but also those world. The
ability to blackmail Kim Jong-Un is considerably increased, including
in relation of the continuous missile tests, that North Korea is
performing, to build a vector capable of reaching the United States, but
which, with the same radius of action , can affect other regions of the world. This
threat, in fact, has been dealt with, so far, in a diplomatic manner,
often with the use of sanctions, probably due to the opposition of
China, to which the presence of North Korea, is used to disrupt the
system of alliances of countries close to the US. For
Obama, the Asia Pacific region was of primary importance for Trump as
deemed necessary to verify behave, although the purpose of loosening the
military engagement in the area seem to be in contrast with the action
against China, identified as the main economic enemy . The
presence of a nuclear threat to South Korea and Japan, could
significantly alter American interests, if only from the point of view
of businesses. for
the presence of a larger amount of atomic weapons, he might have been
led by China, to test the response of the new American administration
and the consequent commitment he intends to put the regional stability
to protect its interests this new state of alarm? If
the question is legitimate is just as likely that the North Korean
threats aim to ensure the same situation and to solicit new
international aid to Pyongyang. In
any case the presence of a nuclear arsenal increased in a state that
defies almost every logic of international relations is a danger that
the new American president can not escape, so how can they not consider
the threat, Russia, l ' Europe and even China, which has so far protected, albeit alternately, the Pyongyang regime. To
worsen the scenario there is the North Korean dictator will arrive to
the construction of a missile capable of reaching the United States and
capable of transporting the nuclear device. This
possibility, however, is still far considered by some analysts, who
believe the technological capability of North Korea overstated, but
there is no doubt that without concerted action by the international
community the experience of Pyongyang in the nuclear weapons industry
will not decrease. Ake
we are not in the presence of conflicts, as in the Middle East, the
situation could soon deteriorate, creating the conditions for a
non-traditional military confrontation. It
certainly appears to be true that until now Kim Jong-Un gave a
deliberately to limit behavior, but an accident, even trivial, could
open a very dangerous front, not only for the United States, but also
for other world powers. If
Trump does not want to engage in too burdensome in question, must, of
necessity, look for a wider international collaboration possible, which
presupposes the obligatory Chinese involvement. Also
because the internal political situation in North Korea is difficult to
assess, although the repressions of the past periods, could make to
presume the presence of opponents who tried to overthrow the regime; However,
given the isolation of the country it is difficult to determine whether
parts of the North Korean society, such as, for example, the armed
forces, may have tried to deprive the dictator Kim Jong-Un.
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