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mercoledì 11 gennaio 2017

The atomic danger of North Korea will become a central issue for Trump

Despite the many challenges present in the international arena, for the new US President Trump, the most urgent danger of becoming one with North Korea. According to sources in Seoul, in fact, the potential nuclear capabilities of Pyongyang, would be greatly increased, thanks to the quantities of uranium enriched and plutonium accumulated in North Korean deposits. In particular, the regime in Pyongyang, would have considerably increased its capacity to enrich uranium, thanks to having put into operation a reactor, with capacity of five megawatts, already closed in 2007, under an international agreement, which It provided humanitarian aid in return for food and medicine. According to estimates of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, the nuclear material quantities available to North Korea, would allow the construction of about twenty nuclear devices. As it can be understood the potential danger has become still greater, for the mere presence of these arms, able to subvert, not only the regional balance, but also those world. The ability to blackmail Kim Jong-Un is considerably increased, including in relation of the continuous missile tests, that North Korea is performing, to build a vector capable of reaching the United States, but which, with the same radius of action , can affect other regions of the world. This threat, in fact, has been dealt with, so far, in a diplomatic manner, often with the use of sanctions, probably due to the opposition of China, to which the presence of North Korea, is used to disrupt the system of alliances of countries close to the US. For Obama, the Asia Pacific region was of primary importance for Trump as deemed necessary to verify behave, although the purpose of loosening the military engagement in the area seem to be in contrast with the action against China, identified as the main economic enemy . The presence of a nuclear threat to South Korea and Japan, could significantly alter American interests, if only from the point of view of businesses. for the presence of a larger amount of atomic weapons, he might have been led by China, to test the response of the new American administration and the consequent commitment he intends to put the regional stability to protect its interests this new state of alarm? If the question is legitimate is just as likely that the North Korean threats aim to ensure the same situation and to solicit new international aid to Pyongyang. In any case the presence of a nuclear arsenal increased in a state that defies almost every logic of international relations is a danger that the new American president can not escape, so how can they not consider the threat, Russia, l ' Europe and even China, which has so far protected, albeit alternately, the Pyongyang regime. To worsen the scenario there is the North Korean dictator will arrive to the construction of a missile capable of reaching the United States and capable of transporting the nuclear device. This possibility, however, is still far considered by some analysts, who believe the technological capability of North Korea overstated, but there is no doubt that without concerted action by the international community the experience of Pyongyang in the nuclear weapons industry will not decrease. Ake we are not in the presence of conflicts, as in the Middle East, the situation could soon deteriorate, creating the conditions for a non-traditional military confrontation. It certainly appears to be true that until now Kim Jong-Un gave a deliberately to limit behavior, but an accident, even trivial, could open a very dangerous front, not only for the United States, but also for other world powers. If Trump does not want to engage in too burdensome in question, must, of necessity, look for a wider international collaboration possible, which presupposes the obligatory Chinese involvement. Also because the internal political situation in North Korea is difficult to assess, although the repressions of the past periods, could make to presume the presence of opponents who tried to overthrow the regime; However, given the isolation of the country it is difficult to determine whether parts of the North Korean society, such as, for example, the armed forces, may have tried to deprive the dictator Kim Jong-Un.

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