The launch of the North Korean missile and its implications

The launch successfully, of a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, was celebrated with the usual emphasis from the regime in Pyongyang. Technically this would be a missile already in possession of North Korea but modified for the transport of a nuclear device and equipped with a solid fuel engine, essential characteristic for intercontinental missiles, capable, then to reach great distances. Despite statements by Kim Jong-Un, who spoke of a new instrument at the disposal of the North Korean armed forces, the carrier would not be the result of a new project, but it would be only the evolution of an existing model; this fact does not diminish, however, the increased ability to hit targets at greater distances from Pyongyang. However it is still in the field of hypotheses, because it is not yet certain whether the missile launch was successful. The collected data speak of a trajectory, it would be about five hundred kilometers, it ended in the waters of the Sea of ​​Japan. It is indisputable that the signal was clear: North Korea, success or failure of the missile is approaching a threat able to go beyond the regional level, with which the Pyongyang policy has so far measured. The political implications of yet another act of defiance by North Korea are part of a multiplicity of causes, intended to create new instability in the region; the most immediate are to be referred to the upcoming and regular joint military exercises Seoul and Washington held in the period between March and April next, that are announced, however, of greater scope and magnitude: a show of force directed precisely against Pyongyang, which wanted giving an early warning, not only in the United States and North Korea, but also to China no longer benevolent, albeit unofficially, to the North Korean regime. The goal of Kim Jong-Un, to Beijing is to create a state of regional alarm, which can impact on Chinese commercial traffic transiting in and use this threat to change the attitude of the Chinese government. In this context it should not be overlooked the affair, which saw the killing, in Malaysia, the half-brother of the dictator, indicated by several analysts as the character identified by the Chinese for a replacement in command of North Korea. It turns out, as always, difficult to make a prediction of how China deemed move, even given the current development of events; does not seem to be able to provide an immediate response, however, the growth of the range of North Korean missiles, can only be a cause for obvious concern for China, forced, somehow, to keep within its sphere North Korea, to avoid the union of the two Koreas in one state, which would end up under Western influence. Beijing's moves must be cautious to try to maintain the status quo in the country of North Korea, perhaps with a turnover of power, which appears, however, more and more difficult. A further implication is to see and evaluate the reactions of the new US President to the attitude of defiance of Pyongyang for the umpteenth violation of United Nations resolutions and the same threats of the new occupant of the White House. For now, despite the conditions, the attitude of Trump was marked by caution, not going beyond the dutiful Japanese ally supporting statements. It was not until the evolution of the situation to also check the Trump ability to handle a possible crisis, which seems increasingly likely: a situation that can say what will be the real diplomatic skills of the new American administration, which, until now, are a big question.