Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 27 aprile 2017
French elections and Europe
The outcome of the French elections must be a source of hope for Europe and, if so, what? Not
for the one directed by Merkel, with the eventual election of the
candidate who came to the fore in the first round, will only feel more
isolated in pursuing his rigorous policies. The
perception is that the possibility of this potential conflict is not
sufficiently investigated by analysts, who prefer to focus on the mass
of votes, that is, the sum of the far-right preferences with those of
the extreme left, who have expressed a clear rejection of the European institutions. In
fact, as regards the union and taking away the purely political
differences that remain irreconcilable despite Le Pen's attempts to
carry the extreme left-wing votes on its name, there is a considerable
convergence on the ruling on economic policy Which Brussels has implemented over the years. In
France, almost half of the voters expressed a vote against Europe and
reasons have long been known: worsening the quality of life in the
middle class, decision-making incapacity and poor vision, aggravated by a
chronic lack of coordination Continental level, which has come to favor Germany, financial institutions and large economic agglomerations. But,
all in all, it could have been worse, for now the French population
still has a preference for Europe, but it must be understood not as a
choice for the best solution, but to the least worse. The
lack of certainty of those who advocate a return to national
sovereignty, which implies a gradual departure of European countries,
with the prospect of abandoning the single currency, still raises a
mistrust, expressing in a strong way the preference for Europe , But this feeling of repudiation is not indefinite, but, indeed, with an expiration not too long. The
center-left independent candidate has presented himself as an
interpreter of a different approach to Brussels, even in the very strict
borders of the European institutions, which he wants to maintain and
develop, changing the current attitudes that many criticisms have
caused. If this candidate is elected president, however, a confrontation with Germany can not be avoided if Merkel remains in power; While things may, perhaps, be a little different if the German Social-Democrats will win. At
the moment, however, Merkel seems to be firmly in power, and even the
social fabric of Germany's elite seems to be always aimed at maintaining
a firm control of financial rigidity as the most suitable tool for
German interests. This
particular indicates that even a possible political change in the
German country will have to take into account the will of the ruling
classes, which will need to be contacted for a possible change of route.
If
the En Marche candidate program does not undergo changes once elected, a
stronger alliance could be created between the countries of southern
Europe, ie between France, Italy and Spain, but also involving Portugal
and Greece and in any case all those who would like to Oppose
the financial rigidity imposed by Berlin in order to create greater
elasticity for investment and also to oblige Germany to invest its
substantial budget surplus; It
is not a question of technicalism: they are the tools needed to
recreate work and wealth for the disadvantaged classes and those who
have undergone the effects of distorted finance, which are the necessary
starting point for rebuilding confidence in the European institution. But
it is only the point of departure, on which to create the gradual
reduction of inequalities and a new interpretation of the union, which
must pass by force through the adoption of laws and the creation of
bodies able to make concrete The idea of starting the European ideal. So,
if it comes to the highest ranks in France, it will be the bearer of
these tendencies, the debate will move from the anti-Europeanists as the
protagonists of a return to national sovereignty, towards and between
currents, however, favorable to Europe, but with a different view , Both for purpose and for address. This
is an already debated debate but it would take on different dimensions,
thanks to the new French developments, which could finally make the
solutions that have been rejected so far more concrete. The
development of European organizations and the importance of union, as
explicit factors for greater spread of well - being within it, and
political and social rights to its outside, are the essential
requirements for a different perception of the goal to be achieved: European political union as a means of mitigating the effects of globalization.
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