Trump presses China on the issue of North Korea

The threat to North Korea and the severe warning to China, are a novelty in political action, in the area of ​​foreign, by the US President Donald Trump. What transpires is an increase of US concern about achieving the Pyongyang to reach an advanced technology capabilities with regard to launchers that can carry nuclear weapons. This fear, coupled with the fear of North Korea's ability to have almost reached a high capacity of the development of military nuclear technology, including that to miniaturize the devices, to allow an easier placement on ballistic missiles and a, consequent, greater ease of transport, starting to worry about in a tangible way the White House. The Obama presidency was marked, on this subject, from a study conducted that aimed to deter Pyongyang to pursue nuclear weapons policy, through the use of sanctions: it was due, at least in part, to the belief that North Korea , although not to be underestimated, it was still far from achieving such a level of its own nuclear capability applied to the military sector, such as worry in a concrete way the United States and its regional allies. Similarly, China has held a conduct toward North Korea, which, even if convicted, seemed still prefer an attitude not too severe. But recent nuclear tests by Pyongyang, with rockets also fell in the territorial waters of Japan have raised the level of attention of the new US administration; Furthermore intelligence sources predict how imminent a new nuclear test by the military of Kim Jong-un. Faced with this Trump scenario seems to want to move in two simultaneous directions: the first does not exclude, and perhaps provides a direct military action against North Korea, which continues to threaten the United States explicitly through direct provocation, the second is to exert pressure on China, as the only ally of north Koreans, so that the Pyongyang regime mute their attitude. The first option was never taken seriously as it is now and it is a very high potential danger because it contemplates a direct American military intervention, and not with mode support to Allied armies, where the risk of a nuclear war is concrete, in a 'area of ​​the world that could see the war expand to South Korea, Japan and, above all, China. For Beijing, the idea of ​​having to face an armed conflict, even indirectly, is the most unwelcome as possible: in fact, despite the large financial efforts to strengthen its armed forces, China is committed to building an international image based on the prestige of dialogue and as a reference point in the production and trade in the global optical interpreted. Going on the Korean question, more specifically, a war between Washington and North Korea, could only be resolved in favor of the United States and consequently produced would increase the flow of North Korean refugees into China and the unification of the two Koreas into a single state, with Seoul and the capital under US influence. Trump is aware of these two dangerous developments for local and against Chinese interests balances, then decided to exert considerable pressure on Beijing, allowing, however, in exchange for cooperation against the North Korean regime, even an opening, perhaps significant, on the issue of the duties that the White House wants to impose on Chinese goods to reduce the deficit of the US trade balance in favor of the Chinese. It is an approach of international issues presenting new elements, closely linking security issues to economic factors; the strategy could prove successful because it represents a way honorable exit and convenient for Beijing, but, which, however, has a weak side rather substantial. In fact, China would be subject to blackmail by Pyongyang, which could threaten Beijing to start a war with the US, to get from the Chinese advantages in order to consolidate the dictatorship of Kim Jong-un; then the situation would be very difficult for both Washington and Beijing. At the time Trump has proved adept at finding a way of dialogue with China, which, in fact, is the only international actor able to put pressure on Pyongyang and that should solve the dilemma, lasted too long, to support a country so dangerous situated directly on its borders. It will be interesting to see what the Chinese determination to solve the problem and through what means and measures.