Iran in the elections

Upcoming Iranian political elections can lead the country to continue on its normalization path or, conversely, bring the country back to a new obscurantist period. The outgoing President, Rohani, can boast of Iran's nuclear agreement and economic growth, but it is not yet complete. While opening up the market abroad, this was not the case for maintaining some sanctions that prevented the country's financial growth. It is no coincidence that the outgoing president's detractors impute to Rohani that he has signed the nuclear treaty too early without having complete certainty of all the counterparts. The adverse party to the outgoing president is the result of this failure to implement treaties, the still high unemployment and the corruption that flagrant the country. But not only is this the motives of contradiction between the two main competing lists: if Rohani, though from a central position in Iranian politics, intends to pursue a course of modernization, the conservatives want to remove again those few concessions made by the government in matters of Social liberalization, to bring the country back to being an Islamic republic in the full sense of the term. Although Rohani's favorite, he has to deal with this line, which tends to identify with the issues most affecting the poorest part of the population, one who does not yet feel the need for greater social freedom as its own. Not at all the areas of the Iranian social fabric, where the outgoing president seems to have the greatest consensus, are those of young people, especially college students, elites and the middle class, more economically advantageous. It seems, for instance, that the economic state that provides some tranquility can allow for greater cultural openness, necessary to feel the greater need for loosening in costumes. It is clear that it is the exact opposite of those who are hoping for a new punishment in Iranian society, also identified as a means of spreading well-being. This approach contradicts the need for greater freedom of movement for foreign investors who have been interested in the prospects that the Iranian economy can offer, thanks to the wealth of its raw materials. But working in the private sector is still too difficult for the excessive bureaucracy, still in the hands of the clerical sectors of the country and hence less enlightened. To grow, the economy needs more streamlined procedures and access to foreign funding, which must be able to arrive safely and quickly. For all these reasons, it is difficult to believe that a conservative victory can create these necessary prerequisites for growth. With the prohibition of polling, it is difficult to make the predictions on the outcome of the vote, although Rohani is most favored, given the need for the country to have guarantees of its economic growth. The outgoing president is certainly not a progressist as we mean in the West, but at this moment, it is the best option that the country allows itself for a further opening on the issue of rights and hence facilitating relations with foreign countries. Rohani's foreign policy, despite the success of the nuclear negotiation, is always characterized by dualism with Saudi Arabia in the religious field, with unconditional support for Assad's regime, as regards The Syrian question and the excessive, though hidden, activity against the Israeli state. With Trump in the role of US President, the relations between the two states have returned to be argued, but with a president of a clear conservative mold the tension could come to very dangerous levels. If the economic aspect is what it is about to make it possible to open the Iranian country to the outside, something that is also necessary for Europe to increase its economy and find privileged channels in relations with Tehran, working to restore the prestige of Brussels in the international arena, the best possible candidate appears Rohani; One should not forget the contribution that Iranian fighters have given to the ground, against the forces of the Islamic State, a factor which, even if framed in dualism between Shiites and Sunnis, must not be neglected and that has come to the impulse of the President Outgoing Iranian. The importance of the Iranian vote, therefore, is crucial for both regional and world equlibri, because a regression of the largest Shiite country would lead to new scenarios of instability, which the already troubled international scene certainly does not need.