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martedì 25 luglio 2017

Iranian presence and infiltration of the Islamic state: dangers in Gaza

The danger of a new intifada in Israel appears to be concrete and the moves of the government in Tel Aviv seem to have accelerated this danger. Certainly, the decision to have installed the metal detectors for access to the mosquito slope can be the occasion to deflate the long-held Palestinian anger, as a result of not solving a solution to the Palestinian question. Netanyahu went against the views of the Israeli militaries who had seen provocation in the measure, which would have serious consequences. Now Israel seems to go back on the decision, but the story has highlighted a very dangerous potential development. It should be remembered that the Israeli government has favored the occupation policy of the Palestinian territory by increasing the colonies and, in fact, blocking the most logical solution of the two states. Meanwhile, the situation in the gaza strip has remained unchanged and there has been no significant improvement for the resident population. In this framework the danger of infiltrating terrorist elements has become more concrete. If the Islamic State starts a military defeat in Iraq and even in Syria, it must change its strategies to maintain its primacy in the Islamic extremist landscape. The goal of striking Israel would be highly symbolic, as well as, and perhaps more, lead a rebellion in Gaza against the situation imposed by Tel Aviv. On the other hand, the Islamic State would exploit a highly explosive situation caused by the failure to reach a definitive solution to the Palestinian question. It is estimated that the activists of the Islamic State, already present in Gaza, are several hundred, and this presence appears highly indicative of the terrorist organization's design. This scenario needs to be added to the contacts that appear to be intensifying between Hamas and Iran. Tehran could try to fit into the Palestinian question, framing it in a wider project to create disruption to Israel; That is, Gaza would go along with Syria and Lebanon as strategic positions to keep Tel Aviv under pressure. It should not be forgotten that Gaza is contiguous with Egypt, a country that has deployed against Iran, within the coalition of the Sunni countries, including the Persian Gulf monarchies. At this moment, relations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and then with President Abbas are interrupted, so Tel Aviv is isolated in relations with the Palestinians, at a time when it would take the most of the dialogue, at least with the moderate part Of Palestinian representatives. According to some Israeli commentators, on opposite positions to the prime minister, Netanyahu could have triggered the current scenario to divert public opinion from accusations of some scandals under its management; If this were true, the Israeli premier's opposition would be unlimited, because it would put at risk not only its own country but also the regional equlibri. However, even without any dialectics, the Israeli government's closure attitude on the Palestinian issue is likely to cause something that seems to be worse than a new intifada. If, on the one hand, fighting terrorism by military means is possible, on the other hand, achieving the definition of the Palestinian question, it would remove any alibi, both terrorist forces, marginalized by the same Palestinian population, and by the interference of foreign forces, Which could enter the field with other purposes. The serious Middle Eastern situation sticks to the opposition between Shiites and Sunni, and it is certainly not necessary to add the Palestinian scenario to new subjects on the scene. This, more than anything else, seems to be the decisive moment for defining the issue between Israel and Palestine, beginning with the talks to reach the most logical solution: the two states. As of now, the responsibility of Tel Aviv to ward off the most dangerous drift of the situation is so obvious.

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