Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 25 luglio 2017
Iranian presence and infiltration of the Islamic state: dangers in Gaza
The
danger of a new intifada in Israel appears to be concrete and the moves
of the government in Tel Aviv seem to have accelerated this danger. Certainly,
the decision to have installed the metal detectors for access to the
mosquito slope can be the occasion to deflate the long-held Palestinian
anger, as a result of not solving a solution to the Palestinian
question. Netanyahu
went against the views of the Israeli militaries who had seen
provocation in the measure, which would have serious consequences. Now Israel seems to go back on the decision, but the story has highlighted a very dangerous potential development. It
should be remembered that the Israeli government has favored the
occupation policy of the Palestinian territory by increasing the
colonies and, in fact, blocking the most logical solution of the two
states. Meanwhile,
the situation in the gaza strip has remained unchanged and there has
been no significant improvement for the resident population. In this framework the danger of infiltrating terrorist elements has become more concrete. If
the Islamic State starts a military defeat in Iraq and even in Syria,
it must change its strategies to maintain its primacy in the Islamic
extremist landscape. The
goal of striking Israel would be highly symbolic, as well as, and
perhaps more, lead a rebellion in Gaza against the situation imposed by
Tel Aviv. On
the other hand, the Islamic State would exploit a highly explosive
situation caused by the failure to reach a definitive solution to the
Palestinian question. It
is estimated that the activists of the Islamic State, already present
in Gaza, are several hundred, and this presence appears highly
indicative of the terrorist organization's design. This scenario needs to be added to the contacts that appear to be intensifying between Hamas and Iran. Tehran could try to fit into the Palestinian question, framing it in a wider project to create disruption to Israel; That is, Gaza would go along with Syria and Lebanon as strategic positions to keep Tel Aviv under pressure. It
should not be forgotten that Gaza is contiguous with Egypt, a country
that has deployed against Iran, within the coalition of the Sunni
countries, including the Persian Gulf monarchies. At
this moment, relations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and
then with President Abbas are interrupted, so Tel Aviv is isolated in
relations with the Palestinians, at a time when it would take the most
of the dialogue, at least with the moderate part Of Palestinian representatives. According
to some Israeli commentators, on opposite positions to the prime
minister, Netanyahu could have triggered the current scenario to divert
public opinion from accusations of some scandals under its management; If
this were true, the Israeli premier's opposition would be unlimited,
because it would put at risk not only its own country but also the
regional equlibri. However,
even without any dialectics, the Israeli government's closure attitude
on the Palestinian issue is likely to cause something that seems to be
worse than a new intifada. If,
on the one hand, fighting terrorism by military means is possible, on
the other hand, achieving the definition of the Palestinian question, it
would remove any alibi, both terrorist forces, marginalized by the same
Palestinian population, and by the interference of foreign forces, Which could enter the field with other purposes. The
serious Middle Eastern situation sticks to the opposition between
Shiites and Sunni, and it is certainly not necessary to add the
Palestinian scenario to new subjects on the scene. This,
more than anything else, seems to be the decisive moment for defining
the issue between Israel and Palestine, beginning with the talks to
reach the most logical solution: the two states. As of now, the responsibility of Tel Aviv to ward off the most dangerous drift of the situation is so obvious.
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