Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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martedì 29 agosto 2017
North Korea launches a rocket flying over Japan
The North Korean rocket, which has flipped Japan, would be the first constructor for the purpose of carrying an atomic bomb. It
was a medium-range missile, but it is a testimony to the progress made
by Pyongyang's missile technology, to get the more distant countries to
the threat. One
can reasonably think that the evolution of these carriers, from medium
to long range, is within the prospects of North Korea. Different
is the discourse of the possibility, which seems still far away, to be
able to miniaturize an atomic bomb to the extent necessary to be
installed on these rockets. The
analysis of these two factors must go hand in hand, as the availability
of the atomic bomb is already in the Pyongyang arsenal, in classical
mode, meaning that it involves using a bomber as a means of using it. Not yet the possibility of using it through a missile carrier. However,
Pyongyang goes hand in hand with laboratory studies to reduce the size
of the atomic bomb and building, with associated tests, rockets capable
of achieving the goals of the regime. If,
according to some analysts, the possibility of reaching some US cities
is already a concrete fact, the perception is that North Korean military
engineers want to test smaller rails to reach a higher degree of
precision. Another
reason for the use of these experiments could be political: Pyongyang
does not want at this stage to threaten the US as well as its allies,
who are part of the US armed forces with so much hated joint exercises
near North Korean waters ,
And the same US installations in the Pacific Ocean, and in particular
the US base of the Guam Island, about 3,000 km from the North Korean
country. The
choice of a medium-sized missile would thus be in this scenario of
indirect threats to the US, through its allies: in fact the use of a
carrier capable of covering the distance with the American base would
become a direct attack against Washington. The
impression is once again that Kim Jong-a wants to play the usual
gambling tactics, trying to bring the situation to a limit that it does
not want to overcome. However,
in this latest launch, which has crossed the Japanese territory before
crashing into the sea, it is not possible to see a rise in the level of
danger of these provocations, which could have been the consequences if
the carrier lost power directly Japan's soil causing casualties and damages? Already
the invasion of Japanese airspace has been established, and provocation
can not be considered as a real act of war, finished, probably in a
way, with no practical implications, except that of violation of
international law; But with other consequences the international situation would now be totally different. What's
more, the stability and regional security are constantly being
threatened, and a greater involvement of actors such as China and Russia
is essential. If
at this moment the line of prudence appears obligatory, diplomatic
pressure on Pyongyang must not be loosened, although the ultimate goal
must be to establish negotiations with the North Korean regime. Even
if you understand the reasons for the US sitting at the same table with
Kim Jong-un, the path to negotiating to stabilize the situation seems
to be the most reasonable, rather than opting for a strength test, which
would annul the North Korean regime, A very high price in terms of human lives and infrastructures in South Korea and Japan. In
these cases, the unofficial work of diplomacy is essential, which
continues without interruption even in the acute phases of dialectics
between the states, in order to keep the channels of non-official
dialogue open. Even
through these instruments, it is necessary to open an international
confrontation between opposing countries, which can define a dangerous
situation, to ensure a more and more needed relaxation far beyond
regional boundaries, but for the entire global international scenario.
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