Politica Internazionale

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lunedì 7 agosto 2017

Tougher sanctions for North Korea

The evolution of the North Korean question has led to a much-anticipated development from the West, as far as it has been hunted by China. Beijing has always been considered the only power to have a possible influence on Pyongyang, however, until now, the will to condition the North Korean regime has never been highlighted. This consideration must be made without considering the possible unconventional and secret attempts that China might have attempted and that they certainly failed. Until now, China has officially gone beyond prammatic statements and maintained an equivocal attitude towards international sanctions against North Korea, favoring unofficial trade. American threats to arrive at a preventive war have, however, become explicit now, so that the military option becomes concrete. This fact, but not only, must have been the basis of Beijing's decision to support new and heavier sanctions against the North Korean country and decided in the institutional sphere of the United Nations in some resonant ways. The gesture has a clear political meaning: China must join the most important supranational organization, failing to solve the issue alone; Not only without explicitly adhering to the new decisions against Pyongyang, China had the impression of supporting the North Korean country. China's concern has become tangible with North Korea's threats to the US, through the concrete chance of hitting American cities, and has increased with the military option it is now possible from Washington. A war in the region would be a major issue to be solved for Beijing, both diplomatically and commercially. That the possibility of a conflict is concrete, it is also understood that Russia, which has adhered to sanctions, has publicly committed itself to a diplomatic and negotiating solution that could rule out the use of weapons. From their point of view, the United States appears to be aware that the implementation of the military option could cause serious damage to South Korean civilian populations and possibly Japan: the allied countries of Washington closer to North Korea and hence , Most likely being retaliated. From the military point of view, while there is a great disproportion between American and North American roots, if war is intended literally preventive, it would be to strike the sites where the atomic bombs are stored: what is difficult to locate, If, however, the goal was to overthrow the regime in power at Pyongyang, it would be a longer conflict and uncertain outcome without China's direct intervention. In any case, certainty of the use of atomic weapons by Pyongyang would be considered: a scenario capable of opening up long-term developments. Moreover, the use of nuclear weapons is not even excluded without an American military attack, but as a response to particularly harsh sanctions and the unity of countries that have approved it. It should be recalled that the scope of sanctions will cut one-third of North Korean revenue from exports. To be hit will be the sectors of raw materials, coal, iron, lead and the fish market; In addition, it will limit Pyonyang's ability to enter into joint venture agreements, to contain the activities of the National Bank for Foreign Trade and the ban on sending foreign workers, whose wages the North Korean government often holds high in valuable currency. It is understood that in a country that has been severely affected by a particularly serious economic situation, these decisions can lead the nation to economic collapse. Now the effects can be of two types: either North Korea will respond militarily, starting a military escalation, since this time the United States will hardly fail to make its retaliation, which has already been announced, or Pyongyang, given the isolation And also the Chinese attitude, we will find the solution to engage in a series of discussions capable of reaching a difficult negotiation. This solution is what the whole world wishes, but the unpredictability of Kim Jong-un does not provide any reliable forecast until the next move.

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