Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 7 agosto 2017
Tougher sanctions for North Korea
The
evolution of the North Korean question has led to a much-anticipated
development from the West, as far as it has been hunted by China. Beijing
has always been considered the only power to have a possible influence
on Pyongyang, however, until now, the will to condition the North Korean
regime has never been highlighted. This
consideration must be made without considering the possible
unconventional and secret attempts that China might have attempted and
that they certainly failed. Until
now, China has officially gone beyond prammatic statements and
maintained an equivocal attitude towards international sanctions against
North Korea, favoring unofficial trade. American
threats to arrive at a preventive war have, however, become explicit
now, so that the military option becomes concrete. This
fact, but not only, must have been the basis of Beijing's decision to
support new and heavier sanctions against the North Korean country and
decided in the institutional sphere of the United Nations in some
resonant ways. The
gesture has a clear political meaning: China must join the most
important supranational organization, failing to solve the issue alone; Not
only without explicitly adhering to the new decisions against
Pyongyang, China had the impression of supporting the North Korean
country. China's
concern has become tangible with North Korea's threats to the US,
through the concrete chance of hitting American cities, and has
increased with the military option it is now possible from Washington. A war in the region would be a major issue to be solved for Beijing, both diplomatically and commercially. That
the possibility of a conflict is concrete, it is also understood that
Russia, which has adhered to sanctions, has publicly committed itself to
a diplomatic and negotiating solution that could rule out the use of
weapons. From
their point of view, the United States appears to be aware that the
implementation of the military option could cause serious damage to
South Korean civilian populations and possibly Japan: the allied
countries of Washington closer to North Korea and hence , Most likely being retaliated. From
the military point of view, while there is a great disproportion
between American and North American roots, if war is intended literally
preventive, it would be to strike the sites where the atomic bombs are
stored: what is difficult to locate, If,
however, the goal was to overthrow the regime in power at Pyongyang, it
would be a longer conflict and uncertain outcome without China's direct
intervention. In
any case, certainty of the use of atomic weapons by Pyongyang would be
considered: a scenario capable of opening up long-term developments. Moreover,
the use of nuclear weapons is not even excluded without an American
military attack, but as a response to particularly harsh sanctions and
the unity of countries that have approved it. It should be recalled that the scope of sanctions will cut one-third of North Korean revenue from exports. To be hit will be the sectors of raw materials, coal, iron, lead and the fish market; In
addition, it will limit Pyonyang's ability to enter into joint venture
agreements, to contain the activities of the National Bank for Foreign
Trade and the ban on sending foreign workers, whose wages the North
Korean government often holds high in valuable currency. It
is understood that in a country that has been severely affected by a
particularly serious economic situation, these decisions can lead the
nation to economic collapse. Now
the effects can be of two types: either North Korea will respond
militarily, starting a military escalation, since this time the United
States will hardly fail to make its retaliation, which has already been
announced, or Pyongyang, given the isolation And
also the Chinese attitude, we will find the solution to engage in a
series of discussions capable of reaching a difficult negotiation. This
solution is what the whole world wishes, but the unpredictability of
Kim Jong-un does not provide any reliable forecast until the next move.
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