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giovedì 24 agosto 2017

Trump revisits his strategy for Afghanistan

Once again, US President Trump must deny himself and his electoral campaign. This time, the occasion is given by the US military presence in Afghanistan, a scenario that was to be abandoned, according to the White House tenant's vision, so that financial gains would be reinvested for the internal situation. But the political and strategic accounting of a great power can not be interpreted merely as a mere economic calculation: geopolitical interests can not be measured only in financial terms, there are costs and revenues induced in terms of foreign policy, which can affect the scenario Global far more than just a simple economic savings. Though Trump does not share the personal choice of maintaining the US military in Afghanistan, as he has stated expressly, the decision is due to the pressure the soldiers used on the American president. Trump has sought to take advantage of the US presence in the Asian country, proclaiming that with this choice the US will come to victory, as opposed to what happened to Bush and Obama. In reality, the most realistic scenario, at the moment, requires the maintenance of positions, in order to avoid the fragile Afghan democracy falling into the hands of the Taliban; The consequence would be to restore strength to Islamic extremism, which Kabul would resume, not only within the country, but also outward. In Afghanistan, Islamic radicalism has repeatedly attempted to create a world-wide base for terrorism and abandon the country would mean that the possibility would become very concrete. Moreover, the example of Iraq, which, left by the American armed forces, has become the land of conquest of the Islamic state, is an example not to be repeated. But these are not the reasons Trump changed direction, the US president was forced by the military, worried that he had to face much greater dangers than the maintenance of troops in Afghanistan. Trump has sought to make a breakthrough in diplomatic relations with Pakistan, whose collaboration is essential to defeating the Taliban. The ambiguous attitude of Islamabad has been heavily criticized by the US president, in line with what Obama has already done, but the choice to favor India as a preferred trading partner has resulted in a further tightening of the relationship between Washington and Islamabad, Which in the Afghan geopolitical scenario is surely counterproductive. In Afghanistan, the US decision was greeted by the government of Kabul with firm approval, given the awareness of not being able to deal with the Taliban alone with its own forces, on the contrary, the Taliban warned the White House to continue the war against the US, Invaders and therefore not legitimized to sit at a possible table of negotiations, repeatedly launched and always suspended for the American presence in the country. Trump, then, starts from where he left Obama and indeed strengthened American troops in Afghanistan, thus demonstrating a president unable to keep promises and election program and providing the perception of being a head of state under protection, for obvious incompetence . This aspect of Trump's weakness is becoming more and more evident, both internally and internationally, as well as by the continued gang of the president, and by the new developments in the case that Russia would have played a decisive role in its election. The United States is likely to pay a very high price in terms of international reliability and the role of world premier as long as this president remains in office.

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