Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 24 agosto 2017
Trump revisits his strategy for Afghanistan
Once again, US President Trump must deny himself and his electoral campaign. This
time, the occasion is given by the US military presence in Afghanistan,
a scenario that was to be abandoned, according to the White House
tenant's vision, so that financial gains would be reinvested for the
internal situation. But
the political and strategic accounting of a great power can not be
interpreted merely as a mere economic calculation: geopolitical
interests can not be measured only in financial terms, there are costs
and revenues induced in terms of foreign policy, which can affect the
scenario Global far more than just a simple economic savings. Though
Trump does not share the personal choice of maintaining the US military
in Afghanistan, as he has stated expressly, the decision is due to the
pressure the soldiers used on the American president. Trump
has sought to take advantage of the US presence in the Asian country,
proclaiming that with this choice the US will come to victory, as
opposed to what happened to Bush and Obama. In
reality, the most realistic scenario, at the moment, requires the
maintenance of positions, in order to avoid the fragile Afghan democracy
falling into the hands of the Taliban; The
consequence would be to restore strength to Islamic extremism, which
Kabul would resume, not only within the country, but also outward. In
Afghanistan, Islamic radicalism has repeatedly attempted to create a
world-wide base for terrorism and abandon the country would mean that
the possibility would become very concrete. Moreover,
the example of Iraq, which, left by the American armed forces, has
become the land of conquest of the Islamic state, is an example not to
be repeated. But
these are not the reasons Trump changed direction, the US president was
forced by the military, worried that he had to face much greater
dangers than the maintenance of troops in Afghanistan. Trump
has sought to make a breakthrough in diplomatic relations with
Pakistan, whose collaboration is essential to defeating the Taliban. The
ambiguous attitude of Islamabad has been heavily criticized by the US
president, in line with what Obama has already done, but the choice to
favor India as a preferred trading partner has resulted in a further
tightening of the relationship between Washington and Islamabad, Which in the Afghan geopolitical scenario is surely counterproductive. In
Afghanistan, the US decision was greeted by the government of Kabul
with firm approval, given the awareness of not being able to deal with
the Taliban alone with its own forces, on the contrary, the Taliban
warned the White House to continue the war against the US, Invaders
and therefore not legitimized to sit at a possible table of
negotiations, repeatedly launched and always suspended for the American
presence in the country. Trump,
then, starts from where he left Obama and indeed strengthened American
troops in Afghanistan, thus demonstrating a president unable to keep
promises and election program and providing the perception of being a
head of state under protection, for obvious incompetence . This
aspect of Trump's weakness is becoming more and more evident, both
internally and internationally, as well as by the continued gang of the
president, and by the new developments in the case that Russia would
have played a decisive role in its election. The
United States is likely to pay a very high price in terms of
international reliability and the role of world premier as long as this
president remains in office.
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