Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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giovedì 10 agosto 2017
Venezuela is isolated on an international level
In
the Venezuelan crisis, there are two substantial aspects that need to
be taken into account in analyzing the problem as a whole. The
first, the most politically relevant, is the absolute denial of
democracy, perpetrated through the management of the power that has
taken on a familiar and clientele mode, in contravention of the written
rules of political relations, which are subverted in a way to keep the
government Of a country, now out of control of Maduro. It seems eloquent that he supported the Caracas regime as Cuba and China remained, expressions of undeniable power. The
second aspect comes directly from the first, and is the absolute lack
of respect for human rights through the use of torture. The
United Nations has publicly reported this problem and has testified
that Maduro is ruling the country using, in contravention of democratic
rules, the violation of human rights. The
use of preventive and unjustified arrest and torture in its most
violent and violent forms, which may lead to the deaths of prisoners for
political reasons, indicates that the Venezuelan country can
increasingly be defined as an authentic dictatorship. This
is now recognized internationally and determines the isolation of the
country, which is not only diplomatic but also economical. Caracas's
main business partners have decided that the body created by Maduro and
called the constituent assembly will not be a recognized institutional
subject, because it is not considered to be non-democratically elected
and therefore the acts approved by the National Assembly will be
considered legitimate. The
matter is of great international significance, because in the
Venezuelan parliament the majority is held by the opposition to Maduro,
but this majority has been certified by regular elections. Of
the eight main trading partners in Venezuela, seven: the United States,
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Italy and Germany have decided not
to recognize the constituent assembly, while only Beijing has
recognized the new organization. The
effects of this decision could lead the country to economic collapse,
due to the probable cessation of the flow of financial lending, which is
indispensable for supplies. The
Venezuelan economic situation, already before this decision taken
internationally, was dramatic, being characterized by a fall in gross
domestic product of 7.4% and conditioned by an inflation rate of 720%. In
addition to political problems, Venezuela pays a little far-sighted
industrial policy, which is based solely on crude oil extraction, whose
barrel price has collapsed, contributing to the contraction of gross
domestic product significantly; The
absence of alternative industrial production has therefore caused a
high unemployment situation, which is also the cause of protests and
disputes over the government. The
lack of raw material supply also affects the food and drug sectors,
causing a highly unstable social situation, also because of precarious
hygiene conditions of the population. These
negative factors can not be mitigated by Chinese support, which is the
second Venezuelan partner, but only for imported goods; Certain
Beijing, given the great liquidity available, will be able to
financially support the Caracas government by opening credit lines with
its banking institutions, but this risks being just a prolongation of an
executive encircled by isolation, just from neighboring countries. Over
a short period of time, Maduro will attempt to exaggerate the National
Assembly and empathize her with her powers and her legitimacy, but
Caracas's strength appears to be limited, both from within and above all
from abroad; So
in the medium and long term it is not forbidden to foresee a fall in
the regime, which may, unfortunately, also occur violently. On
the other hand, even the exponents close to Maduro are being removed
for their critical positions: a sign that the fracture is not only
within the country, but in the same environment close to the Venezuelan
president.
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