Politica Internazionale

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martedì 5 settembre 2017

North Korea does not get the right sanctions

Against the offensive, though demonstrative, North Korean nuclear power, the rest of the world seems to oppose a general diplomatic response, recounting the reactions so far sober to Pyongyang's strength tests. The fear of an atomic or no war is becoming more and more concrete, and it is preferable not to follow Kim Jong-un in its provocations, however, because the world response gets the results it has not achieved so far, a unique response would be needed , which does not appear to be in the interests of all international actors and especially the most important ones. Europe was unusually compact in condemning the North Korean nuclear test, but in this affair the old continent is on the sidelines because it does not have that geopolitical relevance that is relevant and relevant to influence the scenario's development in the eastern Pacific region. The importance of warning North Korea for its irresponsible conduct on the part of the G7, however, is limited and in any case not sufficient to condition Pyongyang. US positions are well known, because the United States is clearly indicated, as a target by Kim Jong-un and the hardest sanctioned request at the seat of the United Nations Security Council represents an answer that is becoming a habit. If, however, the draft resolution that the American ambassador is preparing for, should be transformed into a resolution signed by China and Russia, it would have a significant diplomatic consequence. There is always the risk that the content of the resolution will not turn into practical consequences: despite the sanctions North Korea has been able to trade its coal production, access to oil supplies, financial transactions have not been precluded, and as demonstrate progress in the technological reliability of its armaments, has been able to find abroad the means necessary to progress in the evolution of its arsenals. The crucial knot is what will, from now on, that the North Korean country has joined the nations club with the hydrogen bomb, the attitude that Moscow and especially Beijing will really want to take with regard to Pyongyang. The calendar marks two important dates for North Korea: September 9, the anniversary of the nation's foundation and October 10, the anniversary of the birth of the Workers Party; Kim Jong-un is usually celebrating recurrences with exaggerated strength tests, which could include new nuclear tests or the launch of new intercontinental missiles, factors that would further increase international tension. Russia, through Putin, called on the UN to block North Korea's foreign currency, to embargo on oil supplies and the export of labor force, which allows the dictatorship to obtain substantial financial resources; China has just kept asking Pyongyang to stop the wrong actions. The real point is the attitude of China, which probably does not want to be too rigid in the public with North Korea. The North Korean country is as functional as an embankment for a possible American presence at its borders, and this factor, however, is also a weakness of Beijing to Pyongyang. A test, according to some analysts, would be that the hydrogen bomb experiment would be coincided with the meeting of non-emerging countries, just hosted in China, to put pressure on the government of the People's Republic of China. If this is true, several scenarios open up to the Chinese invasion of North Korea to take power off a character, such as Kim Jong-un, increasingly unmanageable. On the contrary, it is also plausible to suppose that China does not use more persuasive pressure on Pyongyang to make the United States run by a chairman who is not too much in his office. If that were the case, it would be a very unscrupulous and dangerous tactic that could have unwanted effects, the first of which, the rearmament of South Korea, is already happening. Possible scenarios are however many, though Seul's most feared is the most tragic: an atomic explosion of the intensity of the latest North Korean test on the capital of South Korea would have an impact on an urban agglomeration of ten million people , which would inevitably be destroyed.

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