Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 5 settembre 2017
North Korea does not get the right sanctions
Against
the offensive, though demonstrative, North Korean nuclear power, the
rest of the world seems to oppose a general diplomatic response,
recounting the reactions so far sober to Pyongyang's strength tests. The
fear of an atomic or no war is becoming more and more concrete, and it
is preferable not to follow Kim Jong-un in its provocations, however,
because the world response gets the results it has not achieved so far, a
unique response would be needed , which does not appear to be in the interests of all international actors and especially the most important ones. Europe
was unusually compact in condemning the North Korean nuclear test, but
in this affair the old continent is on the sidelines because it does not
have that geopolitical relevance that is relevant and relevant to
influence the scenario's development in the eastern Pacific region. The
importance of warning North Korea for its irresponsible conduct on the
part of the G7, however, is limited and in any case not sufficient to
condition Pyongyang. US
positions are well known, because the United States is clearly
indicated, as a target by Kim Jong-un and the hardest sanctioned request
at the seat of the United Nations Security Council represents an answer
that is becoming a habit. If,
however, the draft resolution that the American ambassador is preparing
for, should be transformed into a resolution signed by China and
Russia, it would have a significant diplomatic consequence. There
is always the risk that the content of the resolution will not turn
into practical consequences: despite the sanctions North Korea has been
able to trade its coal production, access to oil supplies, financial
transactions have not been precluded, and as demonstrate
progress in the technological reliability of its armaments, has been
able to find abroad the means necessary to progress in the evolution of
its arsenals. The
crucial knot is what will, from now on, that the North Korean country
has joined the nations club with the hydrogen bomb, the attitude that
Moscow and especially Beijing will really want to take with regard to
Pyongyang. The
calendar marks two important dates for North Korea: September 9, the
anniversary of the nation's foundation and October 10, the anniversary
of the birth of the Workers Party; Kim
Jong-un is usually celebrating recurrences with exaggerated strength
tests, which could include new nuclear tests or the launch of new
intercontinental missiles, factors that would further increase
international tension. Russia,
through Putin, called on the UN to block North Korea's foreign
currency, to embargo on oil supplies and the export of labor force,
which allows the dictatorship to obtain substantial financial resources;
China has just kept asking Pyongyang to stop the wrong actions. The real point is the attitude of China, which probably does not want to be too rigid in the public with North Korea. The
North Korean country is as functional as an embankment for a possible
American presence at its borders, and this factor, however, is also a
weakness of Beijing to Pyongyang. A
test, according to some analysts, would be that the hydrogen bomb
experiment would be coincided with the meeting of non-emerging
countries, just hosted in China, to put pressure on the government of
the People's Republic of China. If
this is true, several scenarios open up to the Chinese invasion of
North Korea to take power off a character, such as Kim Jong-un,
increasingly unmanageable. On
the contrary, it is also plausible to suppose that China does not use
more persuasive pressure on Pyongyang to make the United States run by a
chairman who is not too much in his office. If
that were the case, it would be a very unscrupulous and dangerous
tactic that could have unwanted effects, the first of which, the
rearmament of South Korea, is already happening. Possible
scenarios are however many, though Seul's most feared is the most
tragic: an atomic explosion of the intensity of the latest North Korean
test on the capital of South Korea would have an impact on an urban
agglomeration of ten million people , which would inevitably be destroyed.
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