The possible retaliation of Ankara for suspension of negotiations to enter Europe

On the eve of the vote of the European Parliament scheduled for 4 October on the stop to Turkey's entry into Europe, Ankara sends a warning to Brussels. In fact, the Turkish Foreign Minister has alerted the Union, who in the event of a rupture of the negotiations, also the agreements between Europe and Turkey on the management of immigrants may have variations. At this moment Turkey has more than three million refugees, whose management, if they had arrived in Europe, would have raised major problems in the relations between the member states. Ankara, besides saying that Turkey is not a refugee camp, is aware that the end of the agreement on migration would lead to an increase in the conflict between members of the Union coupled with exponential growth of the parties and movements populists. One of the reasons for the affirmation of these political trends is, in fact, due to the inability to effectively manage the migratory pressure that Europe is still subjected to. The Turkish Foreign Ministry also stated that the total sum provided for by the agreement, agreed at about three billion euros, only reached 810 million in Turkey and reiterated that Ankara's role in the management of migratory flows 'Europe remains essential. This last statement is hardly controversial and denounces the improvisation and improvisation of Brussels in order to cope with an easily anticipated phenomenon such as the migratory one at a time of history characterized by Middle East wars and famine in Africa. The mistake that Germany's Chancellor Merkel remains one of the great leaders was to rely on Erdogan, who had already begun Turkey to become a sort of dictatorship, marked by the growing importance of the religious element. Despite protests against Ankara's government, Europe has been forced to enter into a powerful power-sharing agreement with the Turkish counterpart. At the same time that Europe was discussing how to handle migrations, the attitude towards Turkey became increasingly harder because of Erdogan's attitude that was less respectful of civil rights. European stiffening against the Turkish country was therefore justified by the facts, but Brussels maintained the deal with Ankara to handle migrants in their territory: a contradiction that could not fail to emerge. The Turkish executive now tries a half-way tactic between the conciliator and the controversial, to refute Brussels from stopping negotiations for Turkey's entry into Europe. On the one hand, it was stressed that the Turkish role in managing migrants was fundamental to the European balance, on the other hand, the Foreign Minister stated that if Europe does not leave its borders, it may end its reforming push; However, this could be true if Turkey responded to the democratization requirements required to enter Europe, while with current standards it would only be a factor of further destabilization. The most likely scenario, therefore, is that the negotiation will almost certainly be interrupted and Turkey's most likely retaliation will be to disband the agreement on the containment of migrants. If the eastern European nations continue to refuse the reception, a serious humanitarian case of difficult management could occur, while at the political level, European arrangements might be unevenly altered. The first consequence would be precisely that prophesied by Turkey, namely a considerable growth of anti-European movements. The biggest defeat in Germany is that it did not want to exacerbate the relationship with the countries of eastern Europe in order not to alienate its favorable economic opportunities, both from the point of view of the labor force and the commercial expansion . But Turkey at this time seems unacceptable in Europe: in addition to the aforementioned reasons, Ankara approached Moscow, shaking forms of economic and military co-operation, which further undermined its entry into the Union. For both sides, therefore, an even more difficult relationship is anticipated, but who has more to lose, in an aggravation of relations, certainly appears to Europe.