Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 12 ottobre 2017
In September, records of deaths in Syria
Last September was the worst, by number of deaths, of the war in Syria; however,
the three thousand people, of whom about a thousand civilians, who have
lost their lives, were not enough to bring the spotlight back to a
conflict that drags itself as a position war of the last century. There is, in fact, no anticipated imminent solution that can stop a carnage that is going on for too long. The
Russian intervention, followed by the American one, contrary to
expectations, has created a stalemate and the continuation of the
conflict has proven to positions that do not seem to allow a positive
evolution. Assad,
whose stay in power was only permitted by Moscow's entry into the war,
controls the coastal and richest part of the country, also thanks to the
equally important support of Iran and Hezbollah. The
Kurds control the portion of the country bordering Turkey and, for this
reason, are subject to opposition actions by Ankara; finally,
the territories still under the control of the Islamic state have been
isolated from the Iraqi side, for the advancement of the forces that
counterbalance the Caliphate and have basically restored under the
sovereignty of Baghdad the western part of Iraq. There
are also small enclaves where there are Syrian democratic forces,
allied to Washington, who do not have enough strength to extend beyond
its control. It
is a scenario close to an equilibrium, certainly unstable, but which
has prevalent aspects of immobility, which do not allow for the
attainment of peace. In
this context, the increase in the number of deaths is explained by the
bombing of the heavens by the Russians and the Americans, pursuing often
opposing targets, affecting the adversaries, often making gross
assessment errors and thus striking civilian targets . Both
Moscow and Washington say they want to strike the forces of the Islamic
state, but often behind this official reason other targets are being
struck, which may be the Syrian democratic forces opposed to Assad by
the Russians, or supporters of the " regular Syrian army, by the Americans. In
the general situation, one should not forget Israeli actions, never
admitted by Tel Aviv, to weaken Hezbollah or Syrian army structures
considered to be dangerous for Israel's security. Despite
this scenario, which is likely to alter well - established balances
outside Syria and the sad record of the number of deaths in September,
the Syrian war seems to have been relegated to the background of
information, has degraded to secondary news, not keeping the necessary attention on the subject. This
lack of interest seems to deprive the right concentration in order to
find a solution to a matter that has been going on for too long. Everyone
in the case seems to move from their positions and action by the United
Nations does not find the right way to end the conflict. First,
what should be an effective dialogue between the US and Russia as the
main channel to develop a solution that can end the conflict, but to
reconcile the opposite interests is not easy, because Trump ' Iran is not conciliatory and Tehran's concern for Assad to remain in the government in Damascus remains a priority. Thus,
a set of crosses does not allow a solution, which could, however, be
identified in the maintenance of their occupation areas, even if
transitional, to concentrate the use of weapons only towards the
occupied part of the Islamic State. Certainly
there would be some advantages to the foreign parties involved,
certainly not welcome any Kurdish autonomy for Turkey, but negotiations
could be opened to foster a diplomatic way of seeking peace. The
United Nations and Europe should dare more in the diplomatic proposal
and promote encounters to stop the country's dead and serious health
conditions and finally be protagonists of the dialogue - a role they
have too often overcome.
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