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mercoledì 15 novembre 2017

Less relevant US in Southeast Asia

For Obama, the importance of Southeast Asia was central to US foreign policy, only the emergence of the Islamic state forced the former White House tenant to shift attention from the Asian area, considered crucial by both the strategic point of view commercial. The Obama administration's lesser commitment to the Obama administration has left a difficult legacy for Trump, a situation worsened by the North Korean crisis and Chinese competitiveness. With this scenario, the US President has dealt with the trip to Southeast Asia with the main goal of affirming the US role in the region. To achieve this, Trump must be able to change the attitude of the powers of the area to increase pressure on Pyongyang, about the nuclear weapon program, and to get trade balance with countries that have a surplus of exports to the USA. If the first objective falls within an international policy logic, which Trump has always put in the background of domestic policy, the second aspect is directly on the issue of the US economy, which is suffering from a significant trade deficit, affecting domestic production and, therefore, the rate of employment: one of the central themes of the election campaign and that has resulted in a large number of votes between male, white and worker electorate. However, this issue is related to the need to reaffirm the role of the world's first power, which in this context can only be explained, chiefly with an affirmation within the North Korean question. But no significant progress has been made on this subject, no prammatic statements have gone past, and the impression is that Pyongyang's behavior is convenient for China and Russia, that is, it is instrumental in keeping the United States in a state of continuous pressure, which could serve to trigger some Trump mistake. At this time for China it is vitally important to be able to become accredited as the commercial power that looks more to the outside, to become the highest representative of globalization and free trade, in sharp contrast to the protectionist policy launched by Trump, which provoked the United States' total reversal of the world trade. The suspicion is that the North Korean question plays in favor of this strategy. Beijing has pledged greater openness to foreign investment, but this was only coinciding with Trump's visit, this decision was not actually derived from Trump's visit, but from the goal of becoming the leader of globalization policy. On the Russian side, the threat of Pyongyang forces the US to focus less on issues that are more important for Moscow: the Ukrainian problem and the Western destabilization strategy pursued on computer networks. If these arguments are true Washington will have to solve the North Korean problem with its usual allies, Japan and South Korea; but the solution is difficult without the direct participation of Beijing and the very essence of this factor is the basis of the theory that China does not engage properly, using the ambiguity of its behavior instrumentally. Trump has returned to the White House, leaving the perception that the United States plays an increasingly less important role in Southeast Asia, also because no country in the region has entered into new bilateral agreements with Washington, and indeed eleven nations have reached an agreement in principle renewing the Pacific trade agreement, without the US presence. A further demonstration of the decline in US prestige in the area was the achievement of a major agreement to draft a code of conduct to avoid possible conflicts between the countries affected by the issue of the controversial islands, even this without the intervention of Washington .

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