The German political crisis is affecting Europe

The German political crisis will have unavoidable repercussions in Europe, whatever the solution will be in Berlin, except perhaps a re-issue of the great coalition, which is, however, essential to the socialists, at present unavailable. The central issue remains Angela Merkel's future, but by now the Chancellor alone does not seem to secure that stability to which the German country has been accustomed for years. The post-election stasis has a very uncertain situation, where there is always the threat of new elections. For Brussels, the scenarios that open are basically three. In the first case, the rigorous party has the best and for the Union means revising the financial expansion policies and returning to the tunnel of the recession; politically this would mean an increase in the liking of parties and movements against Europe, which could put the European project at a high risk for a total crisis of confidence in the social classes because of the policies that Brussels would have to impose on national states . The second possible option is contrary to the first but less likely; in this case, they would have the best power in Germany as well, which would be contrary to rigor, and this could favor a continental phase marked by economic expansion, with possible reflections on inflation, which could have increased values. This scenario is strongly opposed by the finance, credit and industry sectors of Germany and could only be sustained with Merkel as guarantor. The third scenario resembles the recent German political past: contemplate, that is, the possibility of recreating the great coalition. At this time the hypothesis is less likely because the Socialists have refused this possibility since the election campaign; however, if you want to avoid new elections, with totally unexpected results now, this option could help to avoid a dangerous policy derailment on the right and, above all, to pursue a shy, financial policy in the European field that can continue the trend of current growth. Avoiding new elections could also overwhelm the possibility of a Merkel defeat, which would lead to the exit from the political scene. Certainly there is also the possibility that the polls' reaction, with new elections, reverses the former result of the Socialist Party and decreases its victory, but running such a risk would be irresponsible. Regardless of how disappointed it may have been for Merkel, with its sometimes obscured fiscal stiffness that has contracted European economies (except German), it is also true that without its mediation the current monetary policy, which reversed, though not much, the trend of recession. For Europe it is important not to change this direction of development not only for obvious reasons for growth, but also for political, economic, and economic reasons. The challenges the Union faces require a unity of intent, which must not undergo any alterations, and hence the fragile equilibrium on which the major states are based must not be compromised. The intentions of creating a common European defense, a common euro area budget, an overall migration policy, collaboration against terrorism and sustainable development (which is part of the fight against pollution) have become the themes now essential to respond to world challenges and globalization, towards which Europe is still lagging behind. The current problem is that if the mainstream state, Germany, is blocked by an uncertain electoral outcome, the situation inevitably reflects on the European institutions and the other twenty-six countries as well. This practical example clearly tells us that national states should decrease their importance in the Union through the sale of substantial quotas for sovereignty, but for a Europe that is actually serving the peoples and the community, and not as the common sense only sends us to the big financial institutions. In the end, in spite of everything, at least at this stage, Merkel's presence is still a great guarantee and not just the least worse (although we would need much better).