Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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giovedì 21 dicembre 2017
US and North Korea could enter into negotiations
The
US Secretary of State, Tillerson, said that the United States could
undertake direct and unconditional talks with North Korea. Until
now, Washington, to carry out official talks with Pyongyang, had always
put the condition of a different attitude and a moratorium on the North
Korean nuclear arsenal. If
these talks were to take place, in addition to the responsible attitude
of the US, there would certainly be the diplomatic victory of North
Korea, which up to now had made a request to be treated on a par with
the United States without any conditions . This
would imply official recognition of the Pyongyang regime, which has
always been firmly rejected by the American administrations. This
step, if, on the one hand, could highlight a change in the attitude of
the US, could become a sort of victory for Kim Jong-Un, which could be
spent with China, in an anti-American perspective. Pyongyang,
that is, could become a more reliable ally and thus prevent the union
between the two Koreas: a hypothesis always rejected by Beijing, fearful
of having the US military on its borders. It
remains, however, to see the reliability of a dictatorship always
unpredictable in its decisions, even considering that Pyongyang has not
yet had any official reaction. On
the other side of the initiative of the Secretary of State are not yet
fully know the details or even the consideration that Trump may have for
this unofficial diplomatic move: in fact from the White House arrived
ambiguous signals from the entourage of the US president, who is not
understood still
good if he gave directions to the administration led by the Secretary
of State, or if, on the contrary, considers it a waste of time. In
fact, Trump's views on North Korea do not seem to have changed: the
conduct of the Asian country is always considered dangerous, both for
international balances and for the North Korean nation itself. The
intentions of the Secretary of State could be the final result of
unofficial talks between the two countries that have never been
interrupted, because they were carried out by a sort of parallel
diplomacy. These
unofficial channels have allowed us to keep open a dialogue, even in
the most acute moments of the crisis, beyond the profound opposition
between the two countries and the worrying statements coming from both
sides. Currently
the situation is stalled, but Korea is always looking for the necessary
technology for the transport of miniaturized atomic bombs. An
eventual official meeting could allow time to be spent in Pyongyang, an
aspect that could not contribute to a positive attitude of the US
president towards possible negotiations, but, at the same time, could
show an American willingness to negotiate, which would allow Washington
to have lower international pressure. One
of the American considerations is, however, whether the sincerity of
North Korea to keep promises arising from the negotiation is true. One
of the characteristic features of the North Korean regime is its
unpredictability, while on reliability there are no certainties even on
the part of Beijing. In
the case of Kim Jong's failure to comply with the American military
retaliation, it would become more likely and this consideration could
make the White House decide not to take any official negotiations,
because in case of non-compliance with the agreements, a failure of American intervention would be considered an international defeat. What to wish, then? The
current situation requires serious and careful reflections, especially
in the assessment of costs and benefits, in a climate of great
uncertainty, however in an official negotiation the United States would
be noted for their availability with a country that has always attacked
on the diplomatic level and threatened with absurd vehemence.
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