Politica Internazionale

Politica Internazionale

Cerca nel blog

giovedì 21 dicembre 2017

US and North Korea could enter into negotiations

The US Secretary of State, Tillerson, said that the United States could undertake direct and unconditional talks with North Korea. Until now, Washington, to carry out official talks with Pyongyang, had always put the condition of a different attitude and a moratorium on the North Korean nuclear arsenal. If these talks were to take place, in addition to the responsible attitude of the US, there would certainly be the diplomatic victory of North Korea, which up to now had made a request to be treated on a par with the United States without any conditions . This would imply official recognition of the Pyongyang regime, which has always been firmly rejected by the American administrations. This step, if, on the one hand, could highlight a change in the attitude of the US, could become a sort of victory for Kim Jong-Un, which could be spent with China, in an anti-American perspective. Pyongyang, that is, could become a more reliable ally and thus prevent the union between the two Koreas: a hypothesis always rejected by Beijing, fearful of having the US military on its borders. It remains, however, to see the reliability of a dictatorship always unpredictable in its decisions, even considering that Pyongyang has not yet had any official reaction. On the other side of the initiative of the Secretary of State are not yet fully know the details or even the consideration that Trump may have for this unofficial diplomatic move: in fact from the White House arrived ambiguous signals from the entourage of the US president, who is not understood still good if he gave directions to the administration led by the Secretary of State, or if, on the contrary, considers it a waste of time. In fact, Trump's views on North Korea do not seem to have changed: the conduct of the Asian country is always considered dangerous, both for international balances and for the North Korean nation itself. The intentions of the Secretary of State could be the final result of unofficial talks between the two countries that have never been interrupted, because they were carried out by a sort of parallel diplomacy. These unofficial channels have allowed us to keep open a dialogue, even in the most acute moments of the crisis, beyond the profound opposition between the two countries and the worrying statements coming from both sides. Currently the situation is stalled, but Korea is always looking for the necessary technology for the transport of miniaturized atomic bombs. An eventual official meeting could allow time to be spent in Pyongyang, an aspect that could not contribute to a positive attitude of the US president towards possible negotiations, but, at the same time, could show an American willingness to negotiate, which would allow Washington to have lower international pressure. One of the American considerations is, however, whether the sincerity of North Korea to keep promises arising from the negotiation is true. One of the characteristic features of the North Korean regime is its unpredictability, while on reliability there are no certainties even on the part of Beijing. In the case of Kim Jong's failure to comply with the American military retaliation, it would become more likely and this consideration could make the White House decide not to take any official negotiations, because in case of non-compliance with the agreements, a failure of American intervention would be considered an international defeat. What to wish, then? The current situation requires serious and careful reflections, especially in the assessment of costs and benefits, in a climate of great uncertainty, however in an official negotiation the United States would be noted for their availability with a country that has always attacked on the diplomatic level and threatened with absurd vehemence.

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento