Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 28 febbraio 2018
North Korea and Syria would be collaborating on chemical weapons
The
confidential report of the United Nations, published by the New York
Times about the collaboration between Syria and North Korea, if
confirmed opens a disquieting scenario, which will not have implications
on world foreign policy. According
to this confidential information, Pyongyang would have provided all the
necessary material to Damascus to build chemical bombs. It
must be remembered how the Assad regime, in 2013, undertook to destroy
its chemical arsenal and this promise was enough for Obama not to
intervene in Syria: a failure to intervene that would have probably
avoided all the years of war that followed and the huge
human losses that the conflict caused, but it would also have limited
the expansion and success of the Islamic State, which would have been
easier to eliminate. Actually
Assad's promise has not been kept, as demonstrated several times in the
traces left by the chemical devices left in the theaters of war by the
Syrian regular army. Although
Assad has always denied the use of chemical bombs, blaming his
opponents, the most likely hypothesis is that he has kept a part of his
chemical arsenal well protected by the partial promise made to Obama. Certainly
a part of the arsenal has been destroyed and, given the confidence with
this type of weapons, the one indicated by the United Nations
confidential report has a good chance of being true. North
Korea, increasingly subject to sanctions, would be able to export its
military technology to the chemical field in Syria, in exchange for
payments necessary for the survival of the Pyongyang regime. A
collaboration between two rogue states, as was once defined as this
type of nation, very dangerous because it signals an informal alliance
between two governments able to alter world stability with
unconventional methods. From
a practical point of view, to make this collaboration possible it seems
unlikely that transactions between two countries so controlled have
been carried out exclusively between themselves; without
international complicity, through well-known fictitious societies in
the countries to which they belong, this can only be achieved by some
international actors who were aware of these contacts. If this is true, not thinking of Russia, Iran and China seems impossible; in fact, it is about who is closer to the two countries suspected of these traffics concerning chemical weapons. Certainly such a hypothesis will be all to be shown, yet to imagine the American reaction is not difficult. The
US, among other things, has just been strongly criticized by Beijing
for sanctions imposed on companies that have violated the North Korean
embargo by allowing Pyongyang to procure oil and export coal. If
the news of the UN report will be recognized as reliable, North Korean
transactions will have been other and of a much more serious nature. The
fact that North Korea also specialized in the construction of ballistic
missiles and nuclear devices heavily aggravates the situation, because
it also makes it a potential exporter of military technology difficult
to reach for a country like Syria. However,
it must be remembered that the collaboration between the two countries
is not new: in the past the two nations have collaborated for the
construction of a nuclear site, then destroyed by Tel Aviv and Korean
military pilots have flown by the Syrian side in some raids against Israel in the sixties and seventies of the last century. Just the reaction of Israel will be an element to be evaluated carefully for the regional balances. Now
it will be necessary to wait for the reactions of Russia and China,
which if they want to be reliable subjects can only sanction the two
countries in a serious way, but this hypothesis does not seem credible
for the respective interests that Moscow and Beijing have from the fact
that the Damascus regimes and Pyongyang remain alive. At
this juncture, the American alarms therefore appear more than
justified, given that the danger of North Korea, even if at a very high
level, appears even less than a Syria located in the center of the
Mediterranean with a chemical arsenal that can be increased and that
perhaps , sees the possibility of having armaments of another kind.
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