Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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mercoledì 14 marzo 2018
Russia's lack of diplomatic reliability in the Syrian conflict
The Syrian civil war, for Russia, offered the great opportunity to allow Moscow to return to playing a major role; thanks
to Obama's guilty lack of interest and Trump's isolationism, it was
easy for Putin to occupy a space, which was also left free by Europe. So
the Russian country was able to combine the protection of its area of
influence, represented by the protection of the dictatorship of
Damascus with the need, to be able to spend internally, to return to
being a world leader. The
Russian intervention has thus materialized even under the insignia of
the fight against terrorism, which have also been able to justify other
objectives. In
fact, however, Putin has also gained consensus in the western field,
legitimizing his propensity for leading role, which had caused him so
much success in the electoral field. Being
involved in Syria has also allowed Russia to play skillfully on the
diplomatic tables: making alliances, sometimes even uncomfortable and
moving in the direction of traditional opponents. The
rivalry with the United States, certainly not attenuated by the
appointment of Trump as president, has increased, allowing Moscow to
have approached from Iran, with whom it shares the protection of Assad
and Turkey, that the circumstances are increasingly moving away from the
Alliance Atlantica. If
the Kremlin has tried to assert its ambitions also on other grounds,
such as trying to influence elections in other countries, not only in
the US, or having claimed its area of influence with actions of
dubious legality, as in Crimea and in Syria, Syria remains the main ground for asserting its political weight in the international context. However,
in order to continue a linear action of international action, Russia
must have allies, official or unofficial, who have no contrasts and move
on a uniform line: but this is not the case. Turkish
politics forces Erdogan to oppose any Kurdish entity that can aspire to
the exercise of its own sovereignty, even within the dictatorship of
Damascus and, above all, if these ambitions are sought to be implemented
near the borders of Ankara. The
military actions taken by the Turkish armed forces against Syrian Kurds
are taking place on Syrian territory, which has already provoked
Assad's remonstrances; it
must be remembered that the Syrian Kurds were decisive for the role
played by their infantry in the struggle against the Islamic State in
these territories. Their
action was essential not only for Syria, but also for the United
States, with which they often joined and from which they received
logistical support. It
is probably not far from the truth to say that Turkish dislike of
Syrian Kurds depends not only on their being Kurds, but also on the
defeats inflicted on the caliphate formations that initially enjoyed
funding from the Sunni states, including almost certainly also Turkey. The
humanitarian situation occurring in the Kurdish areas, due to the
Turkish intervention, is very serious and just as dangerous are the
potential developments of an attack on the Kurdish areas where there are
US military personnel. In this situation the only power that could play a role of intermediation is only Russia, still present in forces in Syria; however,
the clear uncertainty of Moscow in assuming this role demonstrates how
the Russian power is such only on the military level, while diplomatic
action is characterized by excessive hesitation due to the inability to
make a choice between Assad and Erdogan. If
the first character is now enslaved to the Russian orbit, the second is
considered a potential tool to damage the United States, but the
Turkish invasion in the Syrian territory could prove to be
counterproductive even for Moscow, also because it may have to manage an
even more complicated situation if actual American armed forces were involved. This
Russian diplomatic uncertainty appears in stark contrast to the
military demonstration with which Russia has influenced the fate of the
Syrian conflict. Certainly
the direct involvement of a regional power like Turkey is a more
complicated matter to manage than to fight militias in war by proxy of
other states, who were careful not to expose themselves, but without the
diplomatic action the Russian ambition to be considered a great power is left in half, substantially it is incomplete and therefore unreliable.
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