Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 12 aprile 2018
The variables of the Syrian scenario
The
reason why the conflict in Syria risks becoming a sort of world war is
the presence of armed forces from different countries on Syrian
territory, with clearly different objectives; a scenario that presents a variability of situations in a strongly precarious equilibrium. Making
an analysis of the forces in the field we must start from the main
interpreter of the conflict: the dictator of Damascus Bashar Al Assad. After
seven years of war, with half a million motions and half the population
of the country displaced abroad, the Damascus government controls about
two thirds of the territory and, nominally, it appears as the winner of
the war; nevertheless,
it is a victory achieved only thanks to the intervention of the Russian
and Iranian allies, without which it would presumably have been
defeated three years ago. Assad
is a figure reduced to a head of state strongly controlled by the
allies, kept in power only to favor the geopolitical interests of Moscow
and Tehran. Russia
initially had the main objective of maintaining control over the only
naval base in the Mediterranean Sea, located right on the Syrian coast; Putin,
however, was able to exploit the vacuum left by the US, first with
Obama and later with Trump, making Moscow the role of super power that
he had promised to an increasingly nationalist population. From
a military point of view, Russia has legitimized its influence on the
Syrian country with the employment of about 50,000 soldiers and, above
all, with the installation of an anti-aircraft system based on Russian
technology. For
Iran, as well as the geopolitical aspect of the religious: the goal of
Tehran is to create a territorial band, which, starting from Iran,
through Iraq, Syria and arrive in Lebanon, to unite the Shiite population; it
is a fundamental question for the Islamic republic, especially in the
current phase, which sees an increasingly compact union among the Sunni
states, led by the historic enemies of Iran: Saudi Arabia. Beyond
these two countries there is Turkey, which is characterized by a
behavior that is not always linear, depending on the convenience of the
moment: if at the beginning, probably, Ankara has helped to finance the
Sunni extremists, who would later become the troops of the Caliphate,
with the developments of the conflict has approached Assad, framing it
as a potential ally for the containment of Kurdish ambitions to create
its own sovereign entity. Currently
the Turkish army is guarding a strip of Syrian territory located on its
own border and lately has again changed its attitude on Assad hoping
for the fall, after the Syrian regular forces have lined up to protect
the Kurds. The
US, after making the assessment that the Islamic State had been
defeated, had to return home the approximately 4,000 people present on
Syrian soil, the bombing with chemical weapons is changing Washington's
plans. This
sudden and unexpected turnaround may have been dictated by reasons of
domestic and international opportunities due to Israeli reminders for
the presence of Iranians on the borders of their country. For
Tel Aviv, in fact, the proximity of Tehran's troops is not acceptable,
also because it also means a material support for Hezbollah. However,
Tel Aviv maintains good relations with Moscow and this represents a
variable that can not be readily understood in the Kremlin's relations
with the Iranians. Finally,
we need to consider other armed forces present on the scenario, which
are not the expression of state entities, but militias of groups
uprooted from their positions, as in the Syrian north and in the Aleppo
area there are members of Al Qaeda, while in the desert between Syria and Iraq there are several groups belonging to the Islamic State, which could be the reservoir for new radical militias. A
separate argument must be made for the Kurds, who without American
support could approach the Russians, creating a new reason for
embarrassment in the relationship between Moscow and Iran. This
framework gives back to a very complicated situation, rich in
variables, that with a military development, such as the possible
American attack on Assad, risks to have strong repercussions on a global
scale. The
future scenarios seem difficult to predict, even if a direct
confrontation between the US and Russia does not seem likely, the two
powers would have the way to wage war on other plans, first of all the
commercial and European stability. Not to mention that consolidated aspects such as the Iranian nuclear deal would surely be canceled. Now is the time for diplomacy to take action and set off a negative phase for the whole world.
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