Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 6 giugno 2018
Putin tries to divide the European Union
The first visit to the European Union of Putin, after his re-election, took place in Austria. In
the strategy of the Russian leader there is the will to seek a solution
to put an end to the European sanctions against Moscow, sanctions that
damage the economy of the country because Europe is Russia's trading
partner. The
visit to Vienna is not accidental, even if Austria is not a relevant
country, like Germany or France, it will hold the next European
presidency and will thus favor the resumption of dialogue between
Brussels and Moscow, precisely with the intention of pursue a policy contrary to sanctions against Russia. But there is also a further objective of Putin and provides for a well-defined project; that
of dividing the European Union, crossed by deep contrasts and where the
presence of skeptical movements towards a united Europe favors the
action of the Russian leader to try to diminish the American influence
on the old continent. The
current conditions, for these intentions, are historically the most
favorable, given that the populist movements have repeatedly expressed
their appreciation to Putin and his mode of political action. The divisions between Western and Eastern Europe also allow Putin more room for maneuver. Putin
risks, wrongly, being recognized as the champion of state sovereignty
against the invasion of European institutions, forgetting how Russia is
in effect an oligarchy where civil rights are limited and freedom of the
press and therefore of criticism , is undergoing considerable limitations. The
scheme that Putin applies in international politics is to enter the
scenario from which he wants to derive advantages in a direct way,
taking advantage of the opportunities that the contingent situation
provides; so
the current objective is to divide the European Union to create a
situation favorable to Russia, where Moscow is recognized, even if not
officially, a sort of leader to refer to, thanks to the proximity common
values such as nationalism and a strong political leadership, less bound by parliamentary rules. That
the countries of the former Soviet bloc, which are now in Europe,
undergo an almost magnetic attraction to Russia is well explained by the
political provenance of the parties that govern them, applies to all
the Hungarian example, where there is an analogy with the Russia on the compression of rights and the increasing limitation to freedom of the press. It
would seem less understandable that the success that Putin collects in
the extreme right-wing Italian, French and other Western countries, if
not, with the common low consideration of the democratic values of the
Western European tradition. On
the other hand, Russia has tried, and partly has succeeded, to
influence more than one political election, through funding and the
misuse of computer networks. These
means have similarities with the use of military force in Crimea and
Syria and represent contempt for national sovereignty and for failure to
comply with international law. Probably
the real target of Putin is to weaken the European leadership of
Germany and France, the states that, in addition to having the greatest
political weight in Europe, are also those who fiercely oppose Russian
action to increase the influence of Moscow in the Union area. Putin also has on his side a very effective blackmail weapon, represented by the ability to supply Europe with Russian gas. In
2017 the maximum quantity supplied by Russia to the European Union was
recorded, which continues to depend heavily on Moscow for its energy
needs; even
if an interruption of supply is not likely, because the high-value
currency with which European countries pay is vital for the Russian
economy, temporary interruptions could become an instrument through
which to blackmail the states of Europe.
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