Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 22 agosto 2018
Trump eliminates economic aid for Syria
The
decision by President Trump to cancel the funds destined for the
reconstruction of Syria risks opening up new scenarios for the Middle
East, with repercussions also on Europe and the problem of migration. The
loans, of about three billion dollars, decided by both the US parties,
were directed to civil works, such as the restoration of the aqueducts,
the removal of the rubble and the reclamation operations from the
ordnance of the northern and eastern Syrian territories; the aim was to cancel the presence of the Islamic State and encourage the return of refugees who had fled to Europe. Although
not enough funding for the reconstruction of a country that has just
come out of a long conflict, aid was considered a political act to
counter Russia's influence on the Syrian country and not leave its
exclusive presence in Moscow. The
withdrawal of aid is perceived as a betrayal, from that part of the
Syrian country that had also fought against the dictatorship of Assad
and had hoped for a support, including military support from Washington,
to be able to establish a democracy. In reality, American betrayal had already begun with Obama and Trump's behavior is a consequence. With
this provision, Trump intends, however, to send a concrete signal of
American disengagement towards those scenarios that do not fall within
the strategic interests of the current administration. For now it is a move away from economic aid, but in the future it will concern direct military engagement. The
American intention is to directly involve states that have interests in
the region on the ground, in essence Trump says that the US will no
longer engage directly in the place of allied countries to protect its
geopolitical ambitions. The
contingent case foresees that in the Middle East the involvement
concerns the armies of the Gulf countries, which although remaining
allies of the USA, must make them independent. In
the specific case it will be interesting to see the evolution of this
policy in an area that has Iran as its main enemy of Saudi Arabia. The
question is not secondary because the balance that Trump wants to
entrust to the Arab countries also concern Washington and the armed
forces of the Gulf countries do not seem able to handle situations where
the Americans came out with difficulty. On
the other hand, however, this direction of disengagement is part of the
electoral programs that Trump enunciated even before becoming
president. Also
towards Europe and towards the Atlantic Alliance, Trump's annoyance
towards the lack of collaboration of the allies has manifested itself
many times. It
must be recognized, however, that until now, the American bureaucratic
and military system had been a sort of balancing of the president's
wishes, succeeding in limiting action. The
suspension of aid to Syria does not mean that Trump has won his battle
by totally imposing his political line, but it marks a significant
affirmation, because it has canceled a provision shared by the two
political parties. A
non-secondary aspect, which seems to assume strategic characteristics,
is represented by the effects that this provision will take on a Europe
already torn apart by internal discussion on the migration issue. One
of the possible effects of the aid was precisely that of determining
the return of Syrian refugees to their country, thus easing the pressure
on European countries increasingly impatient towards immigrants. By
denying the aid, Trump contributes to the division of the Union, a goal
which has repeatedly been set to break up the most dangerous economic
entity. The
US president would prefer to have more bargaining power in
negotiations, negotiating with individual states rather than Brussels; moreover,
this objective is shared by Putin, who after the American decision
immediately requested the Union a greater effort to support Syria,
knowing full well how to arouse the opposition of the populists and of
the countries that belonged to the Soviet bloc. It
is clear from these signs that Europe must increasingly look for its
own autonomous role that is disconnected from the logic of external
powers, which also includes China, which can only be used as an economic
partner.
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