Syria: towards the attack of the last rebel area

While the Russian aviation had already begun the bombing of the north-western part of Syria, the last still guarded by rebels against Assad, diplomacy still tries to avert the umpteenth catastrophe due to the Syrian conflict. The presence of 70,000 fighters, including several members of Al Qaeda, ready to announce a possible massacre that would be the natural consequence of the fighting, in which the death toll of civilians would certainly be very high. In the area there are about three million civilians, many of whom have reached this area fleeing from other areas of Syria and, therefore, are already in the condition of refugees. From the diplomatic point of view, the country that has more interest than the battle does not take place is Turkey, because there would be 800,000 people already seeking refuge in the territory of Ankara, located on the border with this Syrian region. But even from a diplomatic point of view Turkey is in a difficult situation: the contiguity with the rebel groups present in the area has provoked the request of Russia, Iran and the Damascus regime for a sort of preventive negotiation to avoid an already deplored battle. from the United Nations and the USA. Ankara has to deal with its tactic oscillating between the use of rebels against Assad and the subsequent dialogue with the Syrian regime: a behavior held to protect their particular interests, especially against the Kurds, rather than looking at the regional balance. The first consequence could be, in fact, a huge influx of refugees to its territory, a problem of difficult management, if combined with the already large amount of refugees that must manage. The interests of Moscow, Teheran and Damascus, however, go in the opposite direction and aim to resolve the issue of Idlib as soon as possible. For the Russians it is a question of ending as soon as possible a direct commitment to the theater of war, which has been justified by the geopolitical objectives of Moscow, but which is no longer seen benevolently by Russian society and begins to cause disagreement over the work of Putin in the middle east. Tehran needs to give the final blow to the Sunni insurgents and to give, through this operation, a clear and unequivocal signal to the Gulf monarchies, which, with this possible defeat, would definitely come out losers from the Syrian conflict. Damascus, directly involved, aims to end the conflict and re-establish its sovereignty over this region, even if it is likely to be a limited sovereignty in favor of Russia and Iran. If the start of operations seems, therefore, impossible to avoid, Iran, Russia and Syria itself wish to resolve the situation with the lowest possible human cost. These words of circumstance are in conflict with the first civilian deaths burned by Russian bombers. While outlining the humanitarian catastrophe, once again we can not fail to register as the United States abdicates its role as the main international power, since Trump's plan for disengagement from Syria will go ahead anyway. The American president has only made an appeal to the three countries involved in the conflict to avoid the battle of Idlib, but it seemed only a formal act without any constraints or consequences. On the other hand, even the United Nations has limited itself to appeals of circumstance and to confirm a meeting of the Security Council that will end in a void for the Russian veto. The rest of the world, including Europe, is left to watch helplessly what is announced yet another massacre of civilians that will follow a serious humanitarian situation and the obvious persecution of the bloody Assad regime, still remained to hold the highest political office of the Syrian country.