The impossibility of sanctioning Saudi Arabia

The assassination of the Saudi journalist carried out by the Riad regime has resulted in a reaction that has never occurred for any of the atrocities carried out previously by Saudi Arabia; in fact the repeated violations of human rights perpetrated in the Arab country were not enough, nor even the violence, often gratuitous or caused by cruel incompetence, carried out by the Saudi military in the Yemeni conflict also to the detriment of children and women to bring about an international disapproval of this level. This sentiment that has pervaded the international community, therefore, represents a novelty with regard to Saudi Arabia, which only the Canadian government had previously expressed, coming into conflict with Riyadh. If the manifestations of aversion to the Saudis are to be registered positively, there remains the regret for not having arrived before and, above all, will have to be evaluated with the concrete effects that they will know and can produce. This aspect is the most relevant, because it invests the relations of Western countries with the Saudi monarchy and can hardly have such an impact as to influence the ways of the Riad. The relations between Western countries and Saudi Arabia are characterized by a high level of trade, in which the balance of payments hangs with considerable favor for the West and the Arab investments, thanks to the liquidity provided by the crude oil, are a part relevant in the panorama of western economies; to this must be added the oil supplies, which are essential for European and American industries. Relationships are therefore very consolidated and can hardly change, certainly the ethical question if it is lawful to do business with such a regime is now only a rhetorical question, which was given a different answer many years before. One of the possible sanctions that has been thought, even by the European Parliament, even if only in the last week, is to suspend the sale of armaments, but it is a sector where Saudi Arabia is the second largest buyer, after the India, which has increased its military spending by 225% in the last five years: an investment, which currently represents 10% of global transactions. It is, as is evident, huge figures, which affect all Western countries and which affect a large number of industries with a large amount of jobs employed. It is no coincidence that US President Trump has spoken explicitly of a possible loss of one million jobs, in the case of an embargo against Saudi Arabia. If the figures of Trump do not seem to be supported by concrete data, the economic damage of the possible sale block, supported also by the Democrats and by the American republicans, seems unequivocal, making the will of those who want to block the sale of the weapons in Riyadh. However, there is also a further motivation, in addition to the economic one, which prevents arms being closed to the Saudis: preventing the entry into Saudi Arabia to Russians and Chinese, who have repeatedly tried, without any success, to sell their armaments Arabia. Keeping the arms sales channel open with the Saudis means, especially for the United States, not to compromise the diplomatic tie, reinforced after Trump's election, between Riyadh and Washington, which is considered essential for the containment of Iran in the Middle Eastern chessboard, this is also in the interests of Israel, which continues its unofficial alliance with Arabia against Tehran. The impact on the Middle Eastern assets would therefore undergo variations that are currently not definable, because a possible Western arms embargo could produce diplomatic reactions that could affect the current scenarios, triggering a highly varied reorganization, where the American leadership could undergo some downsizing. to make dangerous decisions, especially with an administration like the current one established in the White House. It should also be remembered that part of the arms supplies purchased from Saudi Arabia are transferred to those allied countries, always of Sunni religion, who do not have sufficient economic means to invest in war material, but that, Riad has every interest in keep an army properly equipped, first of all Egypt. For these reasons, the USA will carry out an individual retaliation exclusively against the perpetrators of the journalist's murder and not against the principals, but this once again raises the question of the convenience of certain alliances by democratic countries with nations that are of strongly dictatorial government systems and therefore against the fundamental values ​​of the West.