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martedì 20 novembre 2018

Saudi Arabia allied not reliable for the USA

Trump has reversed Obama's tendency towards Saudi Arabia; the Arab kingdom, traditionally close to the United States, had turned away from Washington for the American conduct held during Iran's nuclear negotiations in Tehran. The approach had been interpreted by Ryad as a sort of imbalance in favor of the Shiite enemy; in fact the US doubts concerned the Saudi attitude towards the Islamic State, characterized by a sort of contiguity with the fundamentalists, which was against any American interest. With the election of Trump, naturally hostile to Tehran and the nuclear treaty, the two countries have come together, thanks to the unofficial alliance between Ryad and Tel Aviv, founded on the Iranian common enemy. According to the American president, Saudi Arabia could become a strategic ally, both from a political and a military point of view, as well as potential economic agreements that could be established between the two countries. The fact that the Saudi monarchy is the expression of a totalitarian government, which denies all political and civil liberties and rights, has never scratched Trump's opinion, as, moreover, of almost all Western governments. In Trump's program, Saudi Arabia should have played a role of upward regulation in oil production, would have had to directly engage its soldiers in Syria to counter Iranian presence, would have had to contribute substantially to the US arms industry through huge orders. None of these objectives seems to have materialized: the Saudi will is to limit the production of oil by going in the opposite direction from that required by Washington, the Saudi army is engaged in the war in Yemen, where it can not be right in a definitive way on the rebels, denouncing, then a degree of preparation that justifies the lack of commitment to a war theater much more demanding as the Syrian and the orders of American weapons were limited to modest amounts, compared to expected volumes. In addition, the question of the murder of the dissident journalist in Turkey, probably on the mandate of the Crown Prince, has provoked a very strong reaction from American public opinion, which requires sanctions against the Arab country. In spite of all these reasons Trump insists on wanting to maintain a privileged relationship with a state that seems to offer an alliance only of convenience. One reason for this is the lack of foresight of the White House that continues to see Saudi Arabia as a fundamental element in the chessboard against Iran, but this fact has never been followed by concrete facts, if not proclaimed without follow-up. The question is that Trump had identified Arabia as a possible substitute in the Middle East, but Ryad proved to be not up to standard and the American president does not have an alternative plan and must continue to deny the evidence before the world. Germany has begun a boycott of the sale of its weapons and may soon be followed by other Western countries, increasingly bothered by the behavior of the Crown Prince and, above all by the continuing massacres of unarmed civilians that the Arab country is making in Yemen. Even Israel seems less close to the Saudis, leaving Washington in a dangerous international isolation, not even justified by reasons of convenience. With the result of the American election Trump is weakened on the domestic front and it will be virtually impossible to have the support of the room for initiatives that allow even closer relations with the Arabs. The weak point, however, remains the American political weight in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia appearing to proceed on a path divorced from American interests, the United States must find a new strategy to prevent the exponential growth of Russia and Iran in the region and, for now, it does not seem that Trump's administration is able to elaborate anything.

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