Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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martedì 20 novembre 2018
Saudi Arabia allied not reliable for the USA
Trump has reversed Obama's tendency towards Saudi Arabia; the
Arab kingdom, traditionally close to the United States, had turned away
from Washington for the American conduct held during Iran's nuclear
negotiations in Tehran. The approach had been interpreted by Ryad as a sort of imbalance in favor of the Shiite enemy; in
fact the US doubts concerned the Saudi attitude towards the Islamic
State, characterized by a sort of contiguity with the fundamentalists,
which was against any American interest. With
the election of Trump, naturally hostile to Tehran and the nuclear
treaty, the two countries have come together, thanks to the unofficial
alliance between Ryad and Tel Aviv, founded on the Iranian common enemy.
According
to the American president, Saudi Arabia could become a strategic ally,
both from a political and a military point of view, as well as potential
economic agreements that could be established between the two
countries. The
fact that the Saudi monarchy is the expression of a totalitarian
government, which denies all political and civil liberties and rights,
has never scratched Trump's opinion, as, moreover, of almost all Western
governments. In
Trump's program, Saudi Arabia should have played a role of upward
regulation in oil production, would have had to directly engage its
soldiers in Syria to counter Iranian presence, would have had to
contribute substantially to the US arms industry through huge orders. None
of these objectives seems to have materialized: the Saudi will is to
limit the production of oil by going in the opposite direction from that
required by Washington, the Saudi army is engaged in the war in Yemen,
where it can not be right in a definitive way on the rebels,
denouncing, then a degree of preparation that justifies the lack of
commitment to a war theater much more demanding as the Syrian and the
orders of American weapons were limited to modest amounts, compared to
expected volumes. In
addition, the question of the murder of the dissident journalist in
Turkey, probably on the mandate of the Crown Prince, has provoked a very
strong reaction from American public opinion, which requires sanctions
against the Arab country. In
spite of all these reasons Trump insists on wanting to maintain a
privileged relationship with a state that seems to offer an alliance
only of convenience. One
reason for this is the lack of foresight of the White House that
continues to see Saudi Arabia as a fundamental element in the chessboard
against Iran, but this fact has never been followed by concrete facts,
if not proclaimed without follow-up. The
question is that Trump had identified Arabia as a possible substitute
in the Middle East, but Ryad proved to be not up to standard and the
American president does not have an alternative plan and must continue
to deny the evidence before the world. Germany
has begun a boycott of the sale of its weapons and may soon be followed
by other Western countries, increasingly bothered by the behavior of
the Crown Prince and, above all by the continuing massacres of unarmed
civilians that the Arab country is making in Yemen. Even
Israel seems less close to the Saudis, leaving Washington in a
dangerous international isolation, not even justified by reasons of
convenience. With
the result of the American election Trump is weakened on the domestic
front and it will be virtually impossible to have the support of the
room for initiatives that allow even closer relations with the Arabs. The
weak point, however, remains the American political weight in the
Middle East, with Saudi Arabia appearing to proceed on a path divorced
from American interests, the United States must find a new strategy to
prevent the exponential growth of Russia and Iran in the region and, for now, it does not seem that Trump's administration is able to elaborate anything.
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