Trump uses immigration to seek consensus against the Democrats in the upcoming elections

The upcoming US elections, to be held next Tuesday, have become a sort of referendum on the incumbent president. Trump himself has directed the electoral competition on an evaluation of his work and the possible developments that the result of the vote will determine. The tenant of the White House, despite the good economic results at federal level, which he achieved, seems to fear a lot the possible advance of the Democrats, which would greatly weaken the political weight; for this reason he has focused his electoral campaign on a theme to which his most faithful electorate is particularly sensitive: immigration. This is an argument, which according to the strategy of the president in office, could allow to gain a lot of support from the Republican electorate, especially in the less motivated to vote for the chamber and the Senate. Trump's fear is that a substantial proportion of those who have voted in his favor in the presidential competition are not sufficiently motivated to go to the polls to vote for a republican party from which they are socially and culturally increasingly distant. The greater compactness of the democratic electorate, which has grounds for retaliation, against Trump, which is more stimulating to vote, is the greatest danger for a Republican defeat. Trump's tactic against this is simple: to present immigration danger as a major concern for the political classes that elected him: the regions of deep America and the poorest part of the country, which fears losing parts of income to favor of migrants. The impression is that Trump uses these extreme arguments because he strongly fears a possible democratic affirmation, which could derive from a large turnout due to the great mobilization against the figure of the president in office. Even the fact that the positive economic data have been used little or nothing makes us understand how, for Trump's strategists, there is the feeling of a possible relaxation of the voters who have decreed the victory of the American magnate at the presidential elections, also due to the lack of possibility to cast a vote directly in favor of the current president. Much will depend on how many voters will go to the polls and Trump's call reveals that with the possibility of a low turnout we can verify the affirmation of the Democrats; which, however, seem to be on the polls, even if this is no longer very significant after the wrong predictions, which marked the last presidential elections. Of course for Trump facts of the news, like the march of the Central Americans in the direction of the United States, seem to play in favor of its electoral issues, also encouraging measures, such as the deployment of the army at the borders, which are clear spot electoral. The possibility that the Republican Party will no longer control both chambers would be a major obstacle for the implementation of the policies devised by Trump: the greatest risk is to lose the House, which is completely renewed, while this will be more difficult in the Senate. , where the renewal of the representatives concerns only a third of the total. For the Democrats the electoral value of this appointment with the polls is twofold: if on the one hand an affirmation of the party is necessary as evidence against the incumbent president, to demonstrate the country's opposition to a highly controversial figure, on the other side the concomitance with the election in 36 states out of 50, of the office of governor, can represent an interesting test to identify possible challengers to present to the presidential primaries of 2020. This election will also have international reflexes especially to stop the nationalist tendency and the advocates of the sovereignty that is emerging in the world, on the relations between the US and China and with the European Union, which Trump has identified as a commercial enemy and against which he is pursuing a tactic of division to allow the American affirmation. A possible stop in the trend favorable to Trump could call into question all these aspects.