Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 3 gennaio 2019
The uncertain future of the US with the cohabitation between Trump and the Democrats
The settlement in the United States House, as president of the Democratic Nancy Pelosi is bad news for the head of the White House, but it is also a fact that highlights how the American country is about to enter a phase of great uncertainty. The concomitance with the administrative blockade of the country due to the lack of financing of the wall along the border with Mexico, appears a worrisome coincidence. The work was considered by Trump to be one of the fixed points of his electoral program and was not implemented with the previous parliamentary structure, which allowed the executive to have a large majority. Currently, on the contrary, the Democrats can count on the majority in the House, while the Republicans maintain the largest number of seats in the Senate, where, however, there are many critics of the president of the United States, even if they are members of the same party. In this scenario, the construction of the wall is almost impossible, even under the less severe conditions proposed by Trump. The continuation of the blocking of the administrative activity appears, therefore, a certainty. If the republican party is anything but united, even in the democratic one there are quite evident divisions; among the new elected deputies, especially among the younger ones, there are several highly critical personalities with the leaders who led the last presidential primaries and who then led the electoral campaign that ended with the unexpected defeat of Hillary Clinton. Many of these new parliamentarians come from the most radical part of the party, the one that refers to Bernie Sanders, defeated at the primaries by internal frauds in the democratic party to promote the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, seen as a candidate of the financial system and against the demands of the classes more popular. Precisely these reasons have been identified as one of the major causes of the defeat of the Democratic candidate and the party itself, which has thus favored the rise of an outsider, strongly disliked even in large sectors of his party, as Trump unprepared to victory and to govern . The new members of the democratic party do not share all the politics that the most conservative of the democrats want to carry on, because they consider it too moderate, especially against a president of poor quality like Trump. For these concomitant reasons, the administrative blockade and the strong presence of radical deputies in the democratic ranks, increasingly increases the possibility that, for the US president can start the procedure called impeachement, which allows the indictment of the US president. Although this procedure has only been carried out twice in American history and there has never been any condemnation, the isolation in which Trump finds himself could facilitate the process. The many abandonments that the White House is collecting among its ministers do not depose on the credibility of the president, who fears strongly the investigations on his relations with Russia, with Saudi Arabia, on immigration policy and, above all, on his patrimonial situation, which has always obstinately kept secret. From the political point of view such an action could revive the democratic party at the national level and also the internal one, allowing to overcome the divisions between its currents, while for the part, certainly not secondary, of the Republicans who are against Trump it would be an opportunity to get rid of an inconvenient invader. If this possibility were to materialize, doubts about Trump's management capacity to be subjected to these continuous investigations are certainly not in favor of the president, who has shown, in more favorable situations, that he is not up to pressure from the 'public opinion. The American future is therefore very uncertain, at a global stage where it would require more leadership from the United States, to manage the Middle East scenarios and, above all, the issue with China, which is crucial for the economic development of the country.
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