United Kingdom: uncertainty remains on how to leave Europe

The vote of UK parliamentarians on the agreement signed by the British Prime Minister with the European Union is approaching, while the fear of a further possible postponement remains, after the one that took place last December. The risk is to leave the country in a deep uncertainty, which favors the economic recession; however the greatest fear in the government is to face an unpredictable situation if the agreement is rejected by the House of Commons. This is a probable prospect, which at the moment is justified by the evaluation of the voting numbers, which highlight the lack of the possibility of reaching the favorable majority, due to the skeptics present in the conservatives and the aversion of the Northern Irish party that supports the government. This scenario would be the basis of the reasons that could determine the new postponement of the vote, to allow time to be spent on the executive; choosing this option, however, could weaken the prime minister too much and would most likely open the political crisis, with consequent elections. In this case, Brussels could do nothing but take note of the failure of the negotiation with London, even without the vote of the House of Commons. Indeed, it is difficult to believe that Europe will still be able not to define the issue, procrastinating the decision while waiting for a new executive or a new referendum. To be against the referendum is the premier in charge, but a possible fall could direct the country to a new referendum? Both the conservative party and the Labor party appear to be against it, even if in opposition formation there is a rift between the leadership in office and the party base, which pushes for a new vote. The head of the Labor Party does not seem to be keen to stay in Europe, because it has a negative view from the left, identifying the Union as an expression of financial power, considering the positive sides of Europe not enough to undergo its laws. However, there is a very strong contrast with the moderate part of Labor, who were among the biggest opponents of the referendum result. It must be acknowledged that the question of the referendum, as it was formulated and for the superficial explanations of those in favor of the exit, which were the ones most exposed by the press, allowed the voting of the English people in a distorted and uninformed manner , a situation that could be verified because the elite in command of the nation, have underestimated both the scope of the vote, which, above all, the outcome, taking for granted that there would be the victory of those who wanted to remain in Europe. On the part of the working classes, the right to information has not been exercised and the majority of voters have been carried away by an anti-European feeling experienced as an insult to English sovereignty, which did not take into account the economic consequences of leaving Europe. For these reasons, the repetition of the referendum, with a more aware electoral audience would seem more just. It must also be remembered that the United Kingdom has always enjoyed in regard to the other members of Brussels a different and particularly favorable treatment, which, although unjust, was justified by the Eurocrats with the need to keep the United Kingdom within the political borders of the Union. In other member countries the perception of an English membership based on elements of exclusive convenience and not of a convinced adhesion, corresponds to the truth and is one of the characteristics of apparent hardness and determination, however justified, that has marked the modalities of the negotiations with London from part of Brussels. Any new British membership of Europe could only happen without those privileges that have characterized its participation until the outcome of the referendum: a complete application of obligations and duties, which until now were applied in an incomplete manner. In any case, there is also the need to discourage other possible attempts to exit the Union and for these reasons, in the event of failure to ratify the agreement, it is virtually certain that the United Kingdom will be treated with an exemplary severity, which, added to the effects of the lack of benefits of accession to Europe, could put in great difficulty the Anglo-Saxon country, its social fabric and its economy, whatever color the current government will be.