Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 18 febbraio 2019
The forecasts on the European elections return a fragmented scenario
Survey data from the upcoming European elections open up the possibility of a substantial change in the balance of the European Parliament. According to these figures, in fact, the sum of the seats that will be won by the popular and socialist should not exceed fifty percent of the seats: in essence the two main European political groups can no longer coalition alone to reach the majority. This potential datum is partly due to the decrease in the number of seats, due to the exit of the United Kingdom, but above all due to the advance of populist and far-right movements. Liberal movements, those with their vision of the economy, according to different interpretations, have caused the distrust of the popular classes towards Brussels, thus favoring the growth of anti-Europeanist parties. Ecological parties, which could mitigate liberal influences, should also take on greater importance. In any case, the proven collaboration between socialists and people should be overcome by opening the involvement of other political subjects, which would be indispensable in maintaining the majority, introducing criteria of variability to political action. This will mean that the first objective of the majority will be to protect the European institution of populist and anti-European groups, which intend to exploit the favorable moment to change the political direction of the Union no longer from outside the institutional places, but by changing from within the Brussels policies. The signs for a strong growth of the euro skeptics are all there: the potential Italian result of the Northern League sees it as the second political force behind the German social Christians. In France, the right-wing political overtaking on the ruling party is expected: a result of great psychological significance, which will see the National Front as the first party in Paris. This fragmentation of parliamentary groups will make a single political action more difficult, also because, if the people can have affinities with the liberals, the socialists will have them more with the ecological groups, traditionally distant from the popular. The question that arises is to reconcile distant visions, but not euro skeptics, with the need to propose policies adapted to the European conjuncture in the world and implement them quickly. The growth of the skeptical and populist euro should force the forces not opposed to Europe to continuous compromises and partial renunciations on political programs, to curb the parliamentary action of the populists, a sort of small political cabotage, which could favor the euro vision skeptical about the lack of effectiveness of European policies, turning it into a further means of opting for Brussels. The only effective method to counteract the euro skeptics and encourage policies that increase the well-being of citizens, with more policies on work and the spread of social status, in order to change the perception of those who vote for the populists because they feel they have not plus other alternatives. These policies, however, if they can find a nity of intentions on the continental soil, clash with the particular interests of individual states and individual populations: the lack of tangible common horizons for the population, was a goal that was not pursued at sufficiency from the political forces that have driven the European idea, also for choices too conditioned by an imbalance towards finance, which has always demanded the application of a budgetary stiffness that has been taken on by the popular classes. Will this trend be reversed? It seems necessary a will of several poles, even of different backgrounds, but united by the conviction of the need for a European presence in the world theater, which can prevent a division based on national sovereignty, a factor that weakens the European institutions, according to the project of populist parties. Courage and capacity for mediation as it has never been necessary will also be necessary, but these conditions will be indispensable for effectively countering those who do not believe in Europe and proposing a return to a situation of division, also pursued with a poor attitude to political, self-referential action. and unsuitable for administrative practice, as we are witnessing the government action in Italy, which is an example of what Europe could become.
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