The uncertain US diplomatic policy in Eastern Europe

The visit of the American Secretary of State in Eastern Europe indicates the lack of long-range planning of US diplomacy, because it is too influenced by the dualism of attraction and aversion with Putin, which distinguishes the Trump presidency, which joins the isolationist tendencies and exclusive protection of the White House's national interests in perfect agreement with the countries that belonged to the Warsaw Pact. The first stage of Mike Pompeo's trip will be Hungary, governed by an executive deeply opposed to the European Union, of which it continues to participate without respecting its obligations, but collecting only its advantages. On the aversion to Brussels, Washington and Budapest are aligned, as they are in agreement with the illiberal tendencies, xenophobia and populism, which in Hungary have greater room for maneuver, compared to the USA, due to the lack of those legal balances, present in the Member States United, which limit the action of Trump. However, at the basis of the bilateral relationship there is an obvious contradiction: the Hungarian president is increasingly closer to Putin (unequivocal sign of the democratic immaturity of the majority Hungarian people who elected him), at a time when the tension between Moscow and Washington is on levels of concern for the US unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The American administration, which appreciates the tune with the Hungarian administration, has agreed with Budapest a joint reinforcement of the defense mechanisms, but this can not but arouse suspicions about Orban's real intentions; Is there a potential danger of ambivalent behavior by the Hungarians, ready to take advantage of both the Americans and the Russians? Moreover, the Hungarian government has already implemented this tactic, with the Italian government, with which it says to share the concerns and attitude towards immigration, without then supporting Rome in the Union's headquarters and continuing to avoid direct involvement in the migration issue, leaving Italy without concrete help both for the division of migrants and for the search for alternative solutions. The United States does not realize that by seeking consensus on their positions, they can find non-genuine allies, a consequence of an undefined foreign policy and outside of the same American interests. The visit of the Secretary of State will continue in Poland and Slovakia, meeting governments on positions equally favorable to the protection of national interests against those in Europe, such as Hungary, but not close to Putin and, indeed, concerned about possible developments of potential nuclear rearmament. The fear of the analysts of a more and more isolationist tendency of the United States, in the theme of defense, even in crucial territories such as Europe and in particular Eastern Europe is a shared fear in Warsaw, which sees with fear the possibility of Russian nuclear weapons a few kilometers from its borders. To avoid this danger, Poland has committed itself to the chapter on military spending as demanded by Trump, but the White House's attitude is not reassuring to the Polish ally precisely because of the withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. This could trigger the Russian reaction, which combined with Washington's isolationist tendencies, could create the conditions to fill the gap left by the United States, with a greater presence of Moscow and Beijing. With this scenario the only alternative would be a greater political and military weight of the European Union, but the divisions among its most important members have weakened a subject already lacking in international autonomy and prestige. If the intention of the United States is to isolate itself in foreign policy, the White House does not seem to take into account the effects that can occur from an economic point of view, in what is always the richest commercial area in the world. From this point of view Russian influence can only be marginal, the economy of the country ruled by Putin does not have the structural strength to insert itself strongly in Europe, if not for the raw materials, on the contrary the great financial strength and the great capacity Chinese production could draw a great advantage not indifferent from the American attitude. If this were to happen, however, it would be a further topic of conflict, capable of endangering the peace of the old continent.