Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 27 marzo 2019

The Algerian revolt is not followed by foreign governments like the Arab springs

A few years after the Arab springs, the Algerian situation returns to the top. The popular revolt against a non-able president seems to affect only the media but not, at least directly, neighboring governments or those of Islamic origin. There is a difference with the 2011 uprisings, where some states, also to protect their geopolitical interests, openly supported the protesters: it was the case of Turkey, which was pursuing its project to exert its influence on the territories of the former Ottoman Empire and he leaned on the common religious faith, as a means to achieve his ends. As well as Qatar, which wanted to present itself as an ally, with a modern vision in open contrast with the dictatorships that restricted liberties. Currently, on the international level, there is greater caution and the governments, which previously committed themselves directly, show greater caution. The most widespread fear is that of supporting a revolution that can become a religious matrix, capable of bringing to the government movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood, where the religious connotation appears too exaggerated; this is a justified fear, given that these movements are deeply rooted in Arab societies, because they cover the social void caused by repression against parties and trade unions. It should also be remembered that when the Muslim Brotherhood were in power in Egypt, even though they won the elections in a democratic manner, they understood the electoral victory in an exclusive manner, not respecting minorities and imposing Islamic law without any respect for the secular parties of the society. This state of affairs was followed by the coup d'état that led to the government in Egypt the military, passing the country from the Mubarak dictatorship to the religious one, ending with the military dictatorship. However, the current political situation does not favor an interest on the part of Ankara and Doha: for the Turks, at the moment, the priorities are others, such as the Kurdish question inside and on its borders, while Qatar has a dispute underway with Saudi Arabia and its allies, who have isolated the country, and the choice to maintain a defiliated attitude appears as mandatory. The gulf monarchies themselves limit themselves to looking with suspicion at the Algerian revolution for the sole fear that it will produce an Islamist drift. At the limit those who are more interested are Tunisia, for reasons of neighborhood and for the economic exchange it has with Algeria, but the size of the tuning country is too small to influence Algiers. Being a cirisi isolated and not inserted in a wider movement, as had happened for the Arab springs, it is necessary to consider the scarce propensity of the Algerian country to be influenced by external enetities, thanks also to the availability of energy raw materials, hydrocarbons, which allow a profitable trade with western countries. Moreover, in the West there is a lot of caution, the media follow the evolution of the Algerian crisis, but the governments maintain a detached profile waiting for a greater definition of the events: the unconditional support given to the Arab springs has produced several disappointments, because the poor practice with democracy of the Arab populations, held under dictatorial regimes for too long, was not taken into account, societies where the social structures necessary for political activity had been canceled with the consequence of the lack of a cultural background necessary for life democratic. The failures produced in Libya and in Egypt have had repercussions on the European continent, also due to a poor coordination of the states of the old continent busy chasing after their own particular interests rather than elaborating a common way capable of facing the problem. The prospect of a lack of stability in the Algerian country could bring new concerns to the southern shores of the Mediterranean, Algiers could resume hostilities with Rabat for hegemony in the Maghreb, but above all it could become another Libya for migrant trafficking, putting further danger the assets in the European Union. The position taken by the military against the incumbent president seems to assume a stabilizing role in the country, hoping that this does not lead to an involution as happened in Cairo.

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