US close to the trade agreement with China, but towards the introduction of tariffs for India and Turkey

The United States is increasingly closer to establishing an agreement with China, but at the same time, they open up new controversies with India and Turkey. The question is always that of the lack of reciprocity of commercial treatments. India, in fact, has a preferential treatment, which allows it to export US $ 5.6 billion worth of goods, totally exempt from duties imposed by the US administration. A treatment similar to that enjoyed by Turkey, destined to end at the behest of President Trump. Within the reasons that allowed these exemptions, there are strategic considerations that took into account the importance of India and Turkey, as allies considered important in their respective geographical areas and with a view to balancing the balance of power with other powers, such as the Chinese one, in the Indian case. Trump's lack of consideration for the reasons of foreign policy, in favor of the commercial and industrial interest of the United States, considered pre-eminent, has certainly influenced these decisions, but we must also consider the deterioration of relations between Washington and Turkey, always considered less reliable, also in the framework of the Atlantic Alliance and the desire for leadership in the Indian country, which has manifested with the new government ambitions not always in line with the US government. The rapprochement with China could also have influenced the decision to include the duties for India: in the traditional rivalry between Beijing and New Delhi, the United States seeks a sort of equidistance, which sacrifices the political alliance with India, in favor of a gain in the trade balance. Moreover, this aspect is fundamental in Trump's policy and the achievement of the agreement with Beijing, now almost certain, is considered a victory by the White House. The signing of the agreement should also, albeit partially, cancel the disappointments of the recent Hanoi summit with Kim Jong un, which represented a failure for US foreign policy. The terms of the trade agreement between the US and China should include Beijing's reduction of a share of duties introduced on US products such as soy, cars and chemicals; in addition, Beijing has committed to the purchase, starting from 2023, of American natural gas for an amount of about eighteen billion dollars. The American counterpart is to lower the tariffs introduced by Trump on a value of about two hundred billion dollars of goods, allowing Chinese products to enter the American market again. If part of the US administration is optimistic about the outcome of the agreement, there are also skeptics in the White House, who see dangers arising from the agreement, due to Beijing's lack of guarantees on very relevant issues and issues such as requests for structural reforms in the commercial sphere relating to currency exchange and therefore of Chinese financial policy, up to compliance with international regulations on intellectual property rights and state aid to companies operating abroad. The evaluation of the outcome of the negotiation is not as simple as it would be to believe if a positive result occurred. Trump is aiming for an immediate result, which may not take into account the objections of the White House skeptics, a positive result in the short term could alleviate the controversy surrounding the statements of the former lawyer of the president and therefore, perhaps, would give an advantage in the internal front; however, in the medium and long term, if the fears of the skeptics were to be founded, the negative effects on the American economy could affect relations with China. Consequently, even the objective, even if not too hidden, to create the conditions for a pact between the two world superpowers, which goes beyond commercial issues, and favors the normalization of relations and the overcoming of geopolitical tensions, could be negatively affected. When it comes to international politics and Trump the boundaries of the discussion are always very uncertain and the direction that could make a decision by the American president represents a variable difficult to predict and in this case all solutions are possible.