The international implications of the new Libyan conflict

The forces opposed to the legitimate government of Tripoli would be encircling the capital of Libya, reopening the conflict that has remained latent until now. Behind the head of the Libyan National Army, international maneuvers can be glimpsed, revealing a new possible escalation in the southern shore of the Mediterranean. The main nations involved are France, Russia and Saudi Arabia, each with special interests, but which lead to a dangerous convergence on a personality belonging to the Gaddafi regime. If the support seems common, the intentions that move the three supporting countries are different: France aims to expand its influence on North Africa by subtracting from Italy, which supports the legitimate government, the particular contacts that bind Rome and Tripoli: the maneuver of Paris should not be read as a sign of hostility against the current Italian government, since it has historically been attempted several times by the Elysee's tenants, but, rather, how to exploit a situation of international isolation, which the Italian sovereign government has provoked with the own recklessness and poor international preparation. The behavior of France appears irresponsible even in the face of potential developments that will affect Europe, it is not risky to foresee that the pressure weapon of migration will return to being used more massively, also thanks to the imminent summer season. The current Italian government has embarked on a policy of port closures and open hostility towards non-governmental organizations, which in the event of an increase in migrants in the Mediterranean will cause a very serious crisis among EU countries, aggravating the difficulties of Brussels. Russia continues its policy of international expansion, according to some reports there would be Moscow mercenaries in support of the forces besieging Tripoli and this would be a clear sign of how the opposition with the US, present with actual soldiers on Libyan soil, would be continued, as in Syria, on the international scene. The role of Saudi Arabia, flanked by Egypt and the Arab Emirates, is officially that of having an ally against Islamic extremism like you jihadist, however the real intention seems to be to have an even more active role than that held in Egypt, in the Arab area of ​​the eastern Mediterranean; it is significant that the attack is taking place a week after the leader of the legitimate government faction visited Riyadh. Saudi Arabia would have already provided reassurances about air support for the besiegers of Tripoli. From the geopolitical point of view we must consider the importance of Libya with its coasts close to Europe, its energy potential and the fact that it remained the only country in the area that can end up under the influence of other states, given its great political instability. From this point of view we can understand the objectives of Russia, which could replace the United States if Trump continues in his short-sighted foreign policy even in such an important part of the world, as well as those of the Sunni monarchies, but not those of France, which would be repeating the bad management of Sarkozy during the epilogue of the Gaddafi regime. For now, Brussels is silent or little, giving up once again its own initiative and hindering individual French initiatives, completely disconnected from a common European vision.