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mercoledì 5 giugno 2019

Some possible Chinese answers to American duties

China's retaliation for US tariffs starts with the list of US companies and people who have not respected the rules of the market and for this reason have damaged companies in the Chinese country. Washington's action is defined as economic terrorism, which damages not only China and other countries, but the United States itself, due to a short-sighted policy based on an exclusively hegemonic will. But the Beijing government intends to use the weapon of the so-called rare earths, essential raw material for the industry of new technologies and renewable energies. These are highly specialized industries that constitute a very important sector for the American economy, which need these materials imported from China in considerable quantities. The rare earths are divided into three large species, those defined as light, which are used for smartphone components, which are extracted in China to the extent of 38% of the total; the rare earths called medium and heavy, used for displays and for defensive weapons, which are extracted for 90% of the world total in the Chinese country. The United States, in the period from 2014 to 2017, imported 80% of their total rare earth needs from China. It is therefore a sort of weapon aimed at the USA, to counter the sanctions decision. One of the reasons communicated by Chinese officials is to prohibit the possibility of enriching themselves for those countries, such as the USA, which oppose trade with China, but also to oppose exports of products made with Chinese raw materials that compete directly with the products of China. The White House is well aware of the need for rare earths by American industry and, for this reason, has not included these materials in the lists of established duties. If China decides to implement this restrictive measure, the effects, however, will not be immediate but long-term: the countries that make high-tech products are enchanted, not only the US, but also others, have substantial reserves of raw materials in able to resist the Chinese blockade. However, the extraction of rare earths remains a great variable in terms of production due to their pollution and cost, the USA has already renounced extraction and in China itself industrial reconversion operations are underway in the areas from which these materials come . On the very long period, therefore, Chinese action may not be effective, however, if one enters the hypothesis, the hope is that the trade war ends before the possible effects of the suspension of the supply of rare earths, for this reason the Beijing's intention could only be a threat, to manifest a reaction on the international scene to American stocks. Another front could relate to natural gas: although China ranks tenth among countries holding gas reserves, the intense economic development of the country has led to the importation by Beijing of 41% of its needs, of which 14% arrive from the USA; the introduction of gas into products subject to the introduction of Chinese duties, could generate dangerous consequences within the Chinese market. One of the dangers is that the USA interrupts the supply as retaliation going to create potential situations of conflict whose developments are difficult to imagine.

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