Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 13 giugno 2019

The Japanese premier in Tehran, places Iran at the center of international attention

After the visit of the German foreign minister and before the visit of the European Union official, the meeting between the Japanese and Iranian premier, constitutes in further attempt to save the agreement on the Iranian nuclear and to make the geopolitical situation less unstable in the 'area. The visit to Iran of Shinzo Abe constitutes, already in itself, a historical fact, given that it is the first of a Japanese leader since the 1979 revolution. However the relations between the two states are not new: Japan is one of the most large buyers of Iranian crude oil, even though it respected the sanctions imposed by Washington. At the same time, Tokyo remains one of the greatest allies of the United States and in this privileged role due to its excellent relations with the two countries, it can represent a diplomatic channel to reduce tensions between the two states. President Trump has withdrawn the United States unilaterally from the Iranian nuclear agreement, signed by Obama, due to pressure from the Sunni Arab countries and Israel and has included in the requests to Tehran to make the treaty again effective through a renegotiation, which includes reductions in Iran's missile program and a decrease in aid to armed groups in the Middle East. To increase the pressure on Tehran, the US has reintroduced heavy sanctions, which have caused an economic crisis, which has aggravated the Iranian situation, already compromised by years of sanctions and which have had heavy effects for the middle and lower classes. Trump's requests are not, however, acceptable to Tehran because they invade its sovereignty in foreign policy. Iran has tried to break this diplomatic siege by encouraging meetings with all those international actors who have shown their willingness to establish a relationship of any form of collaboration with Tehran. The visit of the Japanese prime minister is part of this strategy, which aims to present a country that is not available to be subjected to American pressure (and of the Sunni countries together with Israel), but who wants to raise the question of respect for them as the main distinctive sign. This meaning, beyond geopolitical aims, also based on religious approaches, derives from the sense of betrayal generated by the withdrawal of the US nuclear treaty, which has aroused disdain throughout the country, favoring the growth of extremist positions to the detriment of those moderate, who had been the protagonists of the negotiations. Due to the profound uncertainty present both the Iranian officials, and the Japanese ones agreed in saying not to put too much hope in the meeting. In Japan, the visit raised mixed feelings: the moderates were more favorable, but the conservatives were very opposed. The impression is that if a strongly allied US state, that is, it does not have the clearest positions, such as the European Union, it has moved in the first person, there is the will, even of Washington, to get at least get a détente, especially after the risk of the previous weeks, when an international conflict was risked. The activism around the Iranian country, with the visit of the German foreign minister, with that of the Japanese premier and with the next meeting of the EU official, shows how Tehran is at the center of international attention due to fears that the crisis with the United States can degenerate and restore the Middle East to the center of attention after the Islamic State has been defeated. Trump's responsibilities are clear, for denying the Iranian nuclear deal and being flat on the positions of the Arab countries, but the other signatory countries have not done much, besides not withdrawing from the agreement; from the European Union, for example, but also from China, a greater diplomatic impulse was expected to defuse a potentially dangerous situation. The situation remains, however, evolving, unfortunately also from the military point of view with two oil tankers struck in the gulf: an attack that Iran immediately linked to the visit of the Japanese premier, who, would have the goal of diverting international attention from the international meeting.

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