Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 17 luglio 2019

Iran refuses to negotiate ballistic missiles

Iran takes away any possibility of negotiating ballistic missiles with the US. Tehran's position is justified by the American policy of alliance with the enemies of the Iranians, which causes, among other things, the massive sale of US armaments to the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf and to Israel. Iran, substantially, would be operating a sort of balance of armaments in the face of a similar operation by the adversaries. The renunciation of the negotiation confirms the state of tension between Washington and Tehran, which continues, going along with the nuclear issue. The behavior of the United States, with the Trump presidency, has brought back the level of comparison to harsh tones, which had progressively attenuated with the Obama presidency, through a more moderate policy, culminating with the signing of the nuclear treaty and with the collaboration of the Iranian armed forces in the fight against the Islamic State. Trump has made the confrontation with Iran a central topic of his foreign policy, on the one hand because he considered privileging relations with Saudi Arabia, because of the economic advantages that the Sunni monarchy has allowed to earn for the USA, both because the Sunni states were considered strategic allies in the confrontation with Russia, to balance Moscow's Syria activism. The central issue is the situation of peace in the region: there are too many potential factors that can trigger a conflict between states, which would have repercussions on the world economy. Tehran feels encircled and is under pressure due to American sanctions, which put in great difficulty an already depressed economy; the US tactic would be to exasperate the population, the real victim of sanctions and not the regime, to unleash a revolt against religious power: this tactic has proven not to give the desired results, both for the control of the country's institutional forces, both for a nationalism always present in the Iranian population, which rejects American interference even in the most adverse to the regime. From the military point of view, if for the US industry the market of the Sunni monarchies has registered an increase of the sales, the tactic of arming the adversaries of Tehran, has produced in the Iranian country a great resentment, which has had as logical consequence the willingness to continue with its weapons program. To arrive at the opening of a possible negotiation it would be necessary for the US to suspend the supply of arms to the opponents of Iran and this appears to be the real intent of Tehran: to provoke Washington on this issue, making the responsibility fall for a failure of the negotiations, precisely on the White House. This appears to be an additional attempt by the Iranian side to break its isolation, after having directly urged Europe, but also indirectly Beijing and Moscow, to find solutions that force the US to respect the nuclear treaty. To add that ballistic missiles cannot be the subject of negotiations means to give a signal not only to the USA, but to the whole world to put the world powers in the face of the danger of a military escalation, with incalculable conseguneze for the world economy. Tehran, faced with the power deployed by Washington, tries to counteract what is available to it, building a tactic of direct and indirect pressures that are aimed at the entire world diplomatic scene. Avoiding military drift in the region, however, must be the primary objective of the international community, which, however, has not yet produced the diplomatic action necessary to make the situation more relaxed and favorable to a different confrontation between Washington and Tehran. The general attitude, that is, seems to be too wait-and-no, no power seems to want to seriously enter into the question, probably so as not to irritate the US and provoke yet another threat of economic sanctions, which Trump now uses too easily, however, a greater participation seems necessary to avoid an increasingly probable danger.

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