Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 10 luglio 2019
Taiwan new element of contrast between the US and China
The White House has decided to raise the level of the clash with Beijing, through the supply of weapons, for a value of two billion euros, in favor of Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, in the vision of a single China, and therefore considers any interference in this topic as an interference in its internal affairs. US action was perceived with deep annoyance by the Chinese administration, which came to represent Washington's violation of its sovereignty. Beijing has expressly requested the United States to cancel the supply, which, materially has not yet been formalized, because the ratification of the American parliament is missing; however, there seems to be no chance that this ratification will be rejected. China regards Taiwan as a rebel territory with respect to the mother country, but also, a topic that constitutes a sort of boundary not to be crossed by other foreign states. The Chinese navy, in recent times, has intensified military maneuvers near the island of Taiwan, arousing deep apprehension in the Taipei government, which has led to a request for help to Washington for a first military supply, of about 500 million dollars . Contacts between Taiwan and the United States have intensified and an official visit by the Taiwanese president to US territory is imminent. This contributes to raising the Chinese irritation and becomes a factor of further tension for the relations between the two super powers, already put to the test by the question of commercial duties. It should be remembered that there is a Chinese program that aims to reunite China as in the imperial era and this nation's resurgence plan should be completed in 2050 for the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China; for that year, therefore, Taiwan should return to Beijing's control. For now a military attack is not expected and, indeed, the tactic should be that of diplomacy, but Chinese imperialism has experienced remarkable growth levels and the soft approach to the Taiwan issue could change precisely because of the American provocation. What Washington's real intention is not clear; certainly the Taiwanese request for help offered an opportunity to fit into a question that China considers to be of national importance. Washington could try to broaden its action precisely in what Beijing considers its area of exclusive influence: after Japan and South Korea, the US would practically enter the Chinese territory; this interpretation could also be read as a sort of preventive action to avoid a potential Chinese attack against Taiwan. In the diplomatic balances of the area we must not forget that the Japanese vision is perfectly coincident with the American one in the desire to contain Chinese expansionism. There are, therefore, several factors that favor a sort of balance of terror, based, for now, on the presence of conventional weapons, which, however, determine an increase in the danger of a clash, even fortuitous, which can produce worse consequences. Another possibility could be the repetition of the usual Trump scheme, which foresees a series of threats to obtain an economic advantage. This reading could be part of the difficult dialectic of the question of commercial duties; however the protection of Taiwan appears strategic for too many subjects present in the area and does not seem expendable due to any immediate economic advantages. The most important fact to record is the increase in American aversion to China, which is increasingly identified as the main enemy by President Trump's administration. An improvement in the relations between the two states, at the moment, is difficult to predict and this makes the world situation increasingly unstable.
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