The meaning of the new North Korean missile launch

The launch of the two missiles carried out in recent days by North Korea falls within the usual strategic framework of Pyongyang. The warning, as usual, is directed, first of all, towards the USA and South Korea, although the threat can also be extended to Tokyo. It is also necessary to distinguish the tactics thought in particular against Seoul and Washington and the more general one, which concerns the entire international community. About the latter aspect, the will of the Pyongyang regime is to bring the North Korean country to the center of international attention for the needs of the national economy. Regarding the message sent to the South Korean neighbors and their American allies, the main reason for the missile test is the warning to underline the opposition to the joint military operations planned by Washington and Seoul. The position of the two countries towards North Korea, at present, is not one of total opposition: the diplomatic efforts made by Seoul are proof that South Korea intends to stabilize relations with the neighboring country, but the results, although encouraging , did not produce a definitive conclusion about détente. On the other hand, it does not seem possible to believe that this definition will ever arrive: the North Korean dictator has few tools available that are not warlike, to maintain pressure on the neighbor and, at the same time, exploit the continuing threat to gain economic benefits. The only weapon of concrete pressure is to continue, with the excuse of national security, ballistic experiments. Even the United States itself has minimized the launch of missiles in recent days, indeed officially they considered a positive aspect the fact that the war demonstration did not concern nuclear tests. This shows how North Korea, while continuously controlled, is considered, at the moment, in a phase of less danger than when it carried out nuclear tests, interpreted precisely, as a will to carry out greater pressure. However, maintaining joint military exercises still represents a response to Pyongyang, both on the war and on the diplomatic level: in the sense of demonstrating continued US support for South Korea, against any North Korean will. From the most military point of view the missiles launched seem to be of Russian production, even though these carriers can usually only reach 400 kilometers away, while those launched in recent days have reached a distance of 600 kilometers. There are two alternatives: either they were new missiles or they were modified by North Korean armaments. In this second case the regime could have wanted to demonstrate a technological capacity so far underestimated. Even the appearance of having launched Russian-made missiles can be interpreted as a message that relations between Pyongyang and Moscow have been increased and this could also mean that Russia wants to enter more significantly in the region, and as a factor to exacerbate the USA, that to play a more important role in the area, also because of the difficult relations with Japan and with the American allies as such. These considerations may represent an element of greater reflection, compared to the actual relationship between North Korea and the United States at this time: despite the failure of the last summit between Kim Jong-un and Trump, the relations between the two countries are continuing through continuous contacts and joint commissions, which have as their objective the long term to find an agreement for pacification and in the short term to organize a new summit between the two heads of state.