The difficult situation in Iraq

The situation in Iraq is becoming increasingly dangerous, both for internal politics and for the regional balance. The repression of protests by the armed forces has brought the number of victims to 110, as well as several wounded. The country's side of domestic politics is experiencing a significant economic crisis, despite the production of oil, which is perceived by the population as an effect of the bad government associated with the high degree of corruption, attributed to the whole political class, majority and opposition of the country . This discontent causes the birth of spontaneous and apolitical groups, which cannot be controlled by traditional forces, be they political or religious. In demonstrations in locations far from the capital, six venues of political parties were burned at the same time, a fact that is emblematic of the general distrust that characterizes the demonstrations. On the other hand, the government in charge, after the elections of May 2018, is formed by heterogeneous political forces, which cannot find a synthesis for the government action and is, therefore, extremely weak to fight the deep inequality between the social strata, which generates conflicts and demonstrations against the established power. A power that is based on a sectarian distribution and that favored the Shiites in the face of the Sunni majority. But what is not being fought is rampant crime, rising prices and the decrease in essential services, such as medical assistance and education. The high rate of youth unemployment favors the participation of young people in the protests, which constitute most of them, but to go to the streets there are also other categories, such as workers who see their salary rights in danger and in general those who identify the great corruption as the brake on the development of Iraqi society. The popular uprising was frightening to the government, especially for the large number of people who have mobilized to show discontent; this may explain the harshness of the reaction of the security forces, which, however, raises substantial questions about the duration of a government, which does not know how to provide other answers than violence to popular demands. But if this is the internal situation, external factors do not seem to be less important for defining the current situation in Iraq. Baghdad is in the difficult position of enjoying the alliance with the United States, but also of being tied by very close relations with Iran. In a scenario where the deep opposition between Washington and Tehran has grown exponentially after Trump's arrival at the White House, the Iranian country mom can lose positions in a strategic territory like Iraq, especially after the confrontation that Iran has undertaken also with Saudi Arabia. This has led Baghdad to be at the center of regional rivalries, which aggravate its situation by bringing it back to the serious period of the struggle against the Islamic State. There is a large part of Iraqi society that perceives the Iranian presence as an encroachment that is no longer tolerable and this would provoke Tehran's maneuvers to maintain its positions, considered of vital strategic importance, in Iraq. In addition to these factors, the relationship with the United States seems to have worsened due to the orders and economic agreements that the Iraqi country has undertaken with Russia and China, hitting President Trump's susceptibility, always sensitive to the lack of economic opportunities. The vision of these overall scenarios does not allow us to make positive predictions for Iraq: in the short term it seems difficult that the situation can be normalized; too many unresolved problems have worsened for a long time and the road to new elections, very likely, does not seem to allow the victory of a new subject unrelated to the current logic of power, causing a radicalization of the Iraqi society in a dangerous spiral of division, fueled by the presence on the political scene of too high a fragmentation, which can favor a general instability for the intervention of militias ready to exploit the situation of uncertainty and drag the country into chaos, with very serious consequences for the whole Middle Eastern region.