Republican defeats worry Trump

Although some polls have indicated that Trump, at the national level, collects a 56% percentage on the possibility of being re-elected US president, recent federal competitions have recorded heavy defeats for the Republican party. In three federal elections the president's party won only in Missisippi, where the Democrats presented a candidate with positions very similar to those of the Republicans, being against abortion and in favor of arms. On the contrary, the result of Kentucky and Virginia, where the Democratic Party has achieved significant and even symbolic victories, because it has interrupted a long republican dominance. According to the analysts, the victories have been obtained due to the ability of the Democrats to face concrete issues for the life of the citizens, in fact the health, the problem of the spread of weapons and the remuneration related to the minimum wage, were the central themes that characterized the electoral campaign in the states where Trump's party lost. The defeat in the Missisippi is indicative of how the democratic electorate responds negatively to the call to the polls if to represent them there is a candidate more sensitive to the themes of the opposing party. This is due to the greater distance between the two parties, due to the polarization of the American political scene, a consequence of which was the very election of Trump. Victories in the states of Kentucky and Virginia can demonstrate, with all the limitations of a state lesson compared to a presidential one, that the democratic voter is sensitive not only to concrete issues, but also to the value of the candidate, who must demonstrate a certain reliability. This confirms why Clinton was defeated: as identified as the representative of power groups opposed to the demands of the voters of that political party. A relevant fact is represented by the social areas, which were decisive for the democratic victory, those suburban and affluent areas, which are considered decisive for determining the affirmation in the presidential elections. Clearly the vote in three states is not a totally indicative sample, but it can begin to provide signals about voting intentions for next year. On the other hand it was the same Trump who had defined an ugly signal of a possible defeat in Kentucky, then punctually arrived, even if with a minimum gap between the two candidates. At this stage the White House tenant seems to identify the state elections almost as a survey on himself, as shown by the personal commitment, especially in those states where he had achieved the best results against Clinton, to preserve that electoral tank that contributed in a determined way to the final result. In fact, Trump campaigned in Kentucky, where he had a 30% advantage over Clinton and in Missisippi where he had obtained 18% more votes. In the state of Virginia, in contrast to where he had lost the presidential election, the US president did not campaign. The next appointment in Louisiana, where he had won with a percentage higher than 20%, will see Trump again engaged directly in an electoral campaign, which promises to be difficult because the polls give the Democrats the edge. These first results have brought a moderate advantage among the democrats, however making some forecasts appears very complicated, above all for the experience of the last electoral competition, when Trump won against every forecast. However, it seems indisputable that the current moment is not the most favorable for the president in office: in addition to the election results, there is concern about the possible impeachement procedure due to the case of the alleged pressures made by the Ukrainian government to investigate the son of the democratic candidate Biden ; this could affect future actions of Trump and the perception of voters about his re-election.