North Korea's new threats

The North Korean issue and the nuclear threat from Pyongyang return to being a central topic in the international debate. In these relatively calm months in which the North Korean regime has remained fairly calm, there has been no progress on the issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. For the United States, this topic remains central to Washington's foreign policy objectives, because the issue is framed in the protection of Japan and South Korea's allies and is seen as essential also for regulating power relations with Beijing; however, immobility on both sides has not produced satisfactory results for Pyongyang or Washington and the stalemate that has arisen has produced only an uncertainty destined not to last. In fact, the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has expressly affirmed the lack of existence of the reasons for maintaining the blockade on nuclear and, above all, missile tests. Above all, the issue of carriers destined to transport nuclear weapons appears to be the most sensitive topic for the United States, which fear the development of a long-range tactical weapon capable of reaching the US territory and therefore of threatening a large number of other countries as well. : a prospect capable of keeping under blackmail a large area of ​​South East Asia, considered fundamental for the commercial traffic of the United States and its allies. This is, of course, a hypothesis that also affects the trade issue with China, which goes beyond the question of tariffs to have a military dimension, which risks becoming pre-eminent. Despite Beijing's silence, it does not seem risky to glimpse a possible common plan between China and North Korea, whose alliance has not been affected by the behavior of dictator Kim Jong-un, to exert likely pressure on the United States. Beyond the hypotheses, it is a concrete fact that the negotiations for the denuclearization of the peninsula are now blocked and consequently it will be necessary to ask what the consequences will be and who will obtain the greatest benefits, even in indirect terms, from this stop. One of the short-term goals of the North Korean government is to reduce American sanctions, which have very serious concrete effects on an economy in serious difficulty; the threat of a new strategic weapon must be seen in the search to obtain, at least, a reduction in sanctions. Kim Jong-un in his threat tactics, alternating with promises, reiterated the desire not to close the negotiations entirely, waiting for a concrete signal from the American authorities. President Trump has expressed positive words for the North Korean dictator, calling him a man of speech and saying he is convinced that the previously signed denuclearization agreement will not be canceled. The impression is that Trump tries not to exacerbate a situation that could prove to be very dangerous as the election date approaches, but this could be precisely the intention of Kim Jong-un, who sees in the contingent situation of the approaching election American presidential elections, an opportunity to increase pressure on the Republican candidate. For Trump, the reopening of the North Korean front could bring further arguments on national security to his opponents: it is a trap that for the White House tenant presents many pitfalls and few opportunities: if he does not give in to threats, the North Korean nuclear issue will recur in all its gravity with repercussions also on international relations with regional allies, on the contrary a yielding through also a partial reduction of the sanctions without tangible progress in denuclearization, can be interpreted as a sign of a weakness that could be interpreted as inadequacy with a view to re-election . The only way appears to be an official reopening of the negotiations, which would certainly represent an official recognition for North Korea at a time when Pyongyang appears far from the spotlight on the international scene. Trump could grant this favor to his opponent pending a more relaxed handling of the matter if Kim Jong-un will make this concession.