The consequences of the failed truce of the Libyan conflict

The Libyan problem is developing in a negative way day after day. The foreign subjects emerging from the crisis in Libya, Russia and Turkey, also in order not to arrive at a military clash, which could have effects on their respective diplomatic ties, had reached a truce to stop the use of weapons. Truce rejected by General Haftar, who leads rebel forces to the government of Tripoli, the only one in the country recognized by the United Nations. The opposing party to the government of Tripoli, by refusing the truce, demonstrates that it fears that it could lose the advantage gained with the latest military developments, which have led the rebels to advance towards the Libyan capital. To justify the lack of assent to the truce, the Libyan National Army, the name that the rebels gave themselves, spoke of the fight against terrorism, highlighting how, now, this definition is abused and used at all times according to convenience. The rejection of the truce worries both Moscow, alongside the rebels, and Ankara, alongside the Tripoli government. Probably the two foreign countries have entered into conflict with the security of fighting only against local militias or of exercising a deterrent role with respect to the opposite competitor. A continuation of the fighting could provoke a confrontation between members of the two countries, even if Russia does not formally deploy its troops but contract staff belonging to Russian agencies; a pattern that repeats what happened in the Crimea where he fought staff without official insignia. If the rebels continue their action, Russia and Turkey will have to pay mutual attention to being involved only in clashes against local militias; this could prefigure a greater external contribution, through the supply of armaments, logistics and assistance in the rear. However, Turkey allegedly deployed troops specialized in conquering and garrisoning the territory on Libyan soil that have already been employed in the Kurdish territories on the Turkish border with Syria. But Moscow and Ankara are not the only international subjects engaged on the ground, according to some sources in the rebels would also support the UAE air force, which would have carried out raids on the airport of the Libyan capital. From the point of view of international politics, the action of Turkey and Russia has the objective of expanding their respective influences on the southern side of the Mediterranean, filling the political void left by Europeans. The garrison of Libya would allow management of energy reserves, which are one of the main sources of supply for European states and also regulate the traffic of migrants who choose the African route to get to the old continent. In Brussels, the President of the European Council admitted that the need for greater activity in this matter is a pre-eminent factor for the current stage of Union diplomacy. However, faced with the concrete commitment on the ground of other international players, the European Union does not seem to have the readiness to implement other solutions; this is due to the presence of opposing interests, especially between Italy and France, a short-sighted policy of Rome, which is not only of this government, but is dragged by several executives, a central disinterest of Brussels, which has never engaged in first person, but has left too much to Italy, I do not intervene on its shortcomings and, finally, the chronic lack of common political instruments, such as a community foreign policy and the absence of a European army, capable of representing an armed ready force intervention in cases of international crises which are particularly close and which can harm European interests. At this point of the issue, the diplomatic action alone, as well as being late, seems to be insufficient to counter Russian and Turkish action, but also Egyptian action. It should be remembered that the United States is also behaving in a wave-like fashion and is not ensuring that necessary military collaboration, which was guaranteed in the past. This scenario led to the dislike of Tripoli's legitimate government towards Italy and Europe, because it did not see its survival sustained in a practical way, while the rebels confirmed the lack of European support and turned to Russia. In the current state of affairs Libya has moved away and now very problematic scenarios are opening both on the energy level and on that of the control of migrants, with Italy, first, and then Europe under blackmail by Russia and Turkey.