Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 13 febbraio 2020
USA: the Democratic Party is divided
The path of the Democratic Party towards the appointment of Trump's rival in the next presidential election begins to take on a less nuanced profile. The elements that emerge are essentially two: the left seems to have found a strong candidate, Bernie Sanders, who has achieved favorable results with consistent numbers in the primaries played so far. Bernie Sanders has emerged as the strongest leftist candidate for posting to other members of this part of the Democratic Party. The second aspect that emerged from these first rounds of elections is the contrary situation of the moderates, where a candidate capable of representing the currents not moved to the left does not yet seem to emerge. In New Hampshire, moderates achieved results that placed their representatives behind Sanders with close votes. The figure exposes a fragmentation unable to bring out a strong candidate to oppose the left, even if the billionaire Michael Bloomberg has yet to compete. The former mayor of New York may be able to aggregate the moderate vote and present himself as an alternative to Sanders. However, the Democratic Party seems to have returned to the pre-voting situation that led to Trump's election. The great difficulty of the Democrats is again that of not being able to find a candidate capable of synthesizing the often opposite tendencies that are within the party. Despite the unifying aspect of the aversion to Trump, this motivation may not be enough to bring the party left to the vote in the presence of a candidate who is too moderate or believed to be an expression of finance and strong powers, as happened for Clinton. Conversely, a too radical candidate may not get moderate grades because he is considered too distant from moderate progressives. The issue is not secondary. Trump's defeat is far from obvious and a united Democratic Party, capable of overcoming deep differences within it, would be needed to achieve victory. If Biden, in theory, could approach the candidate with these characteristics, for now his results have been discouraging, even if nothing is decided his start was not the best. But, moreover, the potential electoral audiences of the left and moderates are very different: the radicals have the favor of young people, environmentalists, the poorest and also of the Latin community; the moderates have the favor of the middle class and of the black community, which calls for greater legality. Certainly the entry into play of a billionaire of Bloomberg's caliber, despite being in some ways alien to the democratic party, can be a factor that can determine an impact that is difficult to predict on the outcome of the vote, starting with the large economic capacity of which the The former mayor will be able to arrange both in the primary phase and in a possible competition with the outgoing president. This aspect is much feared by conservatives and by Trump himself, who senses a possible invasion of the field within his electorate by Bloomberg. In this hypothesis, however, the competition would be brought back to the center and Trump would have more chances if he managed to keep as many old voters as possible, given that Bloomberg will surely have difficulty in intercepting the vote of the left if not with the only weapon of aversion to the President in office. For now, if the uncertainty is rightly still high, the most relevant element is the apparent disorganization of the Democratic Party, the same condition that occurred in the Conservative Party before Trump's election.
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